The sharply higher guidance and record steel shipments signal strong near-term cash generation. Watch the October 19 earnings release for actual results and any update on aluminum mill ramp timing, which could further support 2027 estimates.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Steel Dynamics issued Q3 2026 earnings guidance of $5.34–$5.38 per diluted share, well above the prior-year Q3 of $2.74 and sequential Q2 2026 of $3.69. The guidance is driven by metal margin expansion and record steel shipments, with steel fabrication backlog nearly 50% higher YoY. The company also repurchased $261 million of stock in Q3 to date.
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 EPS guidance: $5.34–$5.38 per diluted share
- Prior-year Q3 EPS: $2.74; sequential Q2 2026 EPS: $3.69
- Steel operations profitability expected significantly higher QoQ on metal margin expansion and record shipments
- Steel fabrication backlog nearly 50% higher than prior-year Q3 levels, extending through Q1 2027
- Aluminum operations expected to improve meaningfully QoQ; first CASH line operational, second expected before year-end
- Metals recycling operations expected lower QoQ due to lower metal spreads and modestly lower shipments
- Repurchased $261 million of common stock (~1% of shares) in Q3 2026 to date
- Q3 2026 earnings release scheduled for October 19, 2026 after market close
Financial Impact
Guidance midpoint of $5.36 implies ~96% YoY EPS growth and ~45% sequential growth from Q2 2026
Risk Factors
- Metals recycling earnings expected lower QoQ, indicating mixed segment performance
- Aluminum mill ramp remains in commissioning phase; commercial shipments only expected in Q4 2026
- Steel fabrication metal spread compression partially offsets volume gains
- Forward-looking statements subject to steel price volatility and macroeconomic demand shifts
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001104659-26-108777 |
| Document: tm2625690d1_ex99-1.htm | 0001104659-26-108777 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-108777-index-headers.html | 0001104659-26-108777 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-108777-index.html | 0001104659-26-108777 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-108777.txt | 0001104659-26-108777 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 20, 2026 7d ago | 8-K | $244.37 $246.80 | ▼ −0.99% | ▼ −0.92% | $246.80 (−0.99%) |
Oct 19, 2026 8d ago | 8-K | $244.37 $246.80 | ▲ +0.99% | ▲ +0.92% | $246.80 (+0.99%) |
Oct 16, 2026 11d ago | Institutional Cluster | $240.54 $241.53 | ▲ +0.41% | ▲ +0.84% | $246.80 (+2.60%) |
Sep 18, 2026 5w ago | 8-K | $234.70 $233.10 | ▼ −0.68% | ▼ −1.95% | $246.80 (+5.16%) |
Aug 14, 2026 10w ago | 8-K | $255.77 $228.68 | ▼ −10.59% | ▼ −9.22% | $246.80 (−3.51%) |
Aug 4, 2026 12w ago | 8-K | $265.10 $263.69 | ▼ −0.53% | ▼ −0.43% | $246.80 (−6.90%) |
Jul 21, 2026 14w ago | 8-K | $233.52 $250.27 | ▲ +7.17% | ▲ +8.40% | $246.80 (+5.69%) |
Jun 18, 2026 18w ago | 8-K | $249.91 $251.00 | ▲ +0.44% | ▲ +2.10% | $246.80 (−1.24%) |
May 15, 2026 23w ago | Insider Cluster | $229.34 $240.03 | ▲ +4.66% | ▲ +3.70% | $246.80 (+7.61%) |
May 8, 2026 24w ago | 8-K | $235.10 $234.68 | ▼ −0.18% | ▼ −1.64% | $246.80 (+4.98%) |
US Market Status
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