The EPS miss vs elevated consensus is the headline risk — monitor the Oct 20 conference call for commentary on Q4 steel pricing trends and aluminum ramp trajectory. The lack of formal guidance leaves the stock exposed to macro steel price volatility; watch for any Q4 pre-announcement or trade policy developments.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Steel Dynamics reported Q3 2026 EPS of $5.26 on net sales of $6.51B, missing consensus estimates of $5.90 EPS and $6.21B revenue. Despite record steel shipments of 3.8M tons and strong sequential operating income growth of 44%, the 10.9% EPS miss and lack of formal guidance raise concerns about valuation at current levels. The stock may face near-term pressure as the market digests the miss against elevated expectations.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 EPS of $5.26 missed consensus of $5.90 (-10.9%)
- Q3 2026 net sales of $6.51B missed consensus of $6.21B (+4.8% vs estimate, but revenue miss on absolute basis)
- Record steel shipments of 3.8M tons, up 4.7% YoY
- Operating income of $1.01B, up 98% YoY from $508M
- Adjusted EBITDA of $1.19B, up 79% YoY from $664M
- Cash flow from operations of $846M, up 17% YoY
- Share repurchases of $276M (1% of outstanding shares) in Q3
- Aluminum operations EBITDA breakeven for the quarter, operating loss of $26M improved 21% sequentially
- Steel fabrication order backlog 50% higher than a year ago, extending into Q2 2027
- No formal guidance provided; management expressed optimism for 2027
Financial Impact
EPS miss of $0.64 vs consensus (-10.9%) on a $6.51B revenue base; operating income of $1.01B vs $700M in Q2 2026 (+44% sequential)
Risk Factors
- Steel pricing volatility and potential reversal from Q3 peak levels
- Aluminum ramp-up execution risk and yield losses impacting profitability
- Higher scrap costs compressing metal spreads
- Elevated consensus expectations for Q4 ($6.25 EPS) may be at risk if steel prices soften
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001104659-26-117217 |
| Document: tm2627861d2_8k.htm | 0001104659-26-117217 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-117217-index-headers.html | 0001104659-26-117217 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-117217-index.html | 0001104659-26-117217 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-117217.txt | 0001104659-26-117217 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001104659-26-117217 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 20, 2026 7d ago | 8-K | $244.37 $246.80 | ▼ −0.99% | ▼ −0.92% | $246.80 (−0.99%) |
Oct 19, 2026 8d ago | 8-K | $244.37 $246.80 | ▲ +0.99% | ▲ +0.92% | $246.80 (+0.99%) |
Oct 16, 2026 11d ago | Institutional Cluster | $240.54 $241.53 | ▲ +0.41% | ▲ +0.84% | $246.80 (+2.60%) |
Sep 18, 2026 5w ago | 8-K | $234.70 $233.10 | ▼ −0.68% | ▼ −1.95% | $246.80 (+5.16%) |
Aug 14, 2026 10w ago | 8-K | $255.77 $228.68 | ▼ −10.59% | ▼ −9.22% | $246.80 (−3.51%) |
Aug 4, 2026 12w ago | 8-K | $265.10 $263.69 | ▼ −0.53% | ▼ −0.43% | $246.80 (−6.90%) |
Jul 21, 2026 14w ago | 8-K | $233.52 $250.27 | ▲ +7.17% | ▲ +8.40% | $246.80 (+5.69%) |
Jun 18, 2026 18w ago | 8-K | $249.91 $251.00 | ▲ +0.44% | ▲ +2.10% | $246.80 (−1.24%) |
May 15, 2026 23w ago | Insider Cluster | $229.34 $240.03 | ▲ +4.66% | ▲ +3.70% | $246.80 (+7.61%) |
May 8, 2026 24w ago | 8-K | $235.10 $234.68 | ▼ −0.18% | ▼ −1.64% | $246.80 (+4.98%) |
US Market Status
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