The EPS miss may trigger short-term selling, but the guidance raise and operational improvements (first positive Q2 self-pay adds, record churn, leverage target achieved) provide a counter-narrative. Watch for post-earnings drift and analyst reactions; the mixed signals suggest volatility in the near term.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
SIRIUS XM reported Q2 2026 revenue of $2.16B (+1% YoY, slightly above $2.14B consensus) but diluted EPS of $0.70 missed the $0.78 consensus by 10.8%. The company raised full-year guidance by $25M across revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow, while achieving positive self-pay net additions for the first time in four years and record-low churn of 1.4%. The mixed signals create uncertainty around near-term direction.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q2 2026 revenue $2.16B vs consensus $2.14B (+1% YoY)
- GAAP diluted EPS $0.70 missed consensus $0.78 (-10.8%)
- Net income $239M (+17% YoY), Adjusted EBITDA $691M (+3% YoY)
- Free cash flow $593M (+48% YoY)
- Self-pay net additions of +22,000 (first positive Q2 in 4 years)
- Record-low self-pay churn of 1.4%
- Leverage ratio improved to 3.4x, within target range
- Full-year guidance raised: revenue to ~$8.525B, Adj. EBITDA to ~$2.625B, FCF to ~$1.375B (all +$25M)
- SiriusXM segment revenue $1.62B, Pandora & Off-Platform $543M (+4% YoY)
Financial Impact
EPS miss of $0.08 vs consensus implies ~$27M shortfall in net income relative to expectations, partially offset by $20M revenue beat and $25M full-year guidance raise
Risk Factors
- EPS miss could weigh on sentiment if consensus estimates are revised downward
- Advertising revenue growth (8% at SiriusXM, 5% at Pandora) may slow in a weaker macro environment
- Pandora monthly active users declined 7% YoY, indicating competitive pressure in streaming
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0000908937-26-000020 |
| Document: siri-20260730.htm | 0000908937-26-000020 |
| Document: 0000908937-26-000020-index-headers.html | 0000908937-26-000020 |
| Document: 0000908937-26-000020-index.html | 0000908937-26-000020 |
| Document: 0000908937-26-000020.txt | 0000908937-26-000020 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0000908937-26-000020 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul 30, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $30.97 $28.50 | ▼ −7.98% | ▼ −11.94% | $25.72 (−16.95%) |
Jul 30, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $30.97 $28.50 | ▼ −7.98% | ▼ −11.94% | $25.72 (−16.95%) |
Jul 30, 2026 9w ago | Press Release | $30.97 $28.50 | ▲ +7.98% | ▲ +11.94% | $25.72 (+16.95%) |
Jul 6, 2026 12w ago | Press Release | $30.71 $30.37 | ▼ −1.11% | ▼ −2.44% | $25.72 (−16.25%) |
Jun 12, 2026 16w ago | Institutional Cluster | $27.52 $30.42 | ▲ +10.54% | ▲ +8.76% | $25.72 (−6.54%) |
Apr 30, 2026 22w ago | 8-K | $26.67 $29.52 | ▲ +10.68% | ▲ +5.45% | $25.72 (−3.57%) |
Apr 10, 2026 25w ago | DEFA14A | $23.46 $26.75 | ▲ +14.01% | ▲ +5.48% | $25.72 (+9.62%) |
Mar 4, 2026 30w ago | 8-K | $22.41 $23.41 | ▲ +4.44% | ▲ +8.86% | $25.72 (+14.75%) |
Feb 26, 2026 31w ago | 8-K | $21.31 $22.95 | ▲ +7.72% | ▲ +14.12% | $25.72 (+20.72%) |
US Market Status
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