The bullish analyst consensus and strong institutional buying are countered by heavy insider selling and extreme short interest. Traders should treat Roth's initiation as a confirming signal but wait for a catalyst (earnings or product news) before committing capital, given the 59% short interest could fuel a squeeze or a sharp decline.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Roth Capital initiated coverage on SailPoint, Inc. (SAIL) with a Buy rating and a $19 price target, representing 40.7% upside from the current $13.50. The firm has a 56% accuracy rate on 295 calls and an average return of 9.5%, placing it above most peers covering the stock. Consensus is heavily bullish: 25 of 29 analysts rate it Buy (86%), 3 Hold, and 1 Sell. The mean price target is $18.48, with a high of $25 and low of $14. Roth's $19 target sits slightly above the median of $18. Momentum is positive — 1 upgrade in 30 days, 0 downgrades, and EPS revisions are mixed but tilted upward for near-term quarters. Insider selling of ~$2M in April by multiple executives (including the CEO) diverges from the bullish analyst signal, but institutional activity shows strong buying from Norges Bank (new $235M position) and Morgan Stanley (+32%). Short interest is elevated at 59.1% of float, suggesting potential for a squeeze if positive catalysts emerge. Bottom line: Roth's initiation adds a high-accuracy voice to an already bullish consensus, but the heavy insider selling and extreme short interest warrant caution — traders should watch for a catalyst to break the stalemate.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is 86% Buy (25 of 29 analysts: 8 Strong Buy, 17 Buy), 10% Hold (3 analysts), and 3% Sell (1 analyst). The direction is overwhelmingly bullish, with Roth's initiation reinforcing the positive view.
Current price: $13.50. Mean target: $18.48, median: $18.00, high: $25.00, low: $14.00. Implied upside to mean is 36.9%. Roth's $19 target is slightly above the median and in line with the bullish consensus.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $17.00 |
| 2026-05-21 | Roth Capital | initiate | Buy | $19.00 |
| 2026-03-23 | Cantor Fitzgerald | reiterate | Overweight | — |
| 2026-03-19 | JP Morgan | maintain | Overweight | — |
| 2026-03-19 | Truist Securities | maintain | Buy | — |
| 2026-03-19 | Goldman Sachs | maintain | Neutral | — |
| 2026-03-19 | Scotiabank | maintain | Sector Outperform | — |
| 2026-03-19 | RBC Capital | maintain | Outperform | — |
| 2026-03-19 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | — |
| 2026-03-19 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | — |
30-day analyst activity: 1 upgrade (Roth's initiation), 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are mixed: +1q has 8 revisions up and 0 down in 7 days; 0q has 0 up and 9 down in 30 days. Near-term estimates are being revised higher, while the current quarter is seeing downward pressure.
Firm Track Record — Roth Capital
Roth Capital accuracy: 56% on 295 calls | avg return: 9.5%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 10 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | 50% | 1/2 | 7.7% | below average |
| BMO Capital | 33% | 1/3 | -0.5% | below average |
| Morgan Stanley | 33% | 1/3 | 4.2% | below average |
| Wells Fargo | 33% | 1/3 | 2.3% | below average |
| Barclays | 25% | 1/4 | -4.8% | below average |
| Mizuho | 17% | 1/6 | -7.7% | below average |
| BTIG | 0% | 0/2 | -4.8% | below average |
| Scotiabank | 0% | 0/2 | -17.4% | below average |
| RBC Capital | 0% | 0/2 | -3.9% | below average |
| JP Morgan | 0% | 0/3 | -3.8% | below average |
Roth Capital has a 56% accuracy rate on 295 calls with an average return of 9.5%, ranking above most firms covering SAIL. Among peers, Jefferies (50% on 2 calls) and BMO Capital (33% on 3) trail. The best-performing firm by return is Jefferies (+7.7%), while Scotiabank is the worst (-17.4% on 2 calls).
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1q | $0.08 | $0.06 — $0.09 | $309.7M | ↑8 ↓0 |
| 0y | $0.32 | $0.29 — $0.34 | $1.3B | ↑6 ↓0 |
| +1y | $0.39 | $0.35 — $0.45 | $1.5B | ↑4 ↓0 |
| 0q | $0.04 | $0.04 — $0.05 | $276.1M | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trading: 5 sells totaling ~$2M on April 9, 2026, by executives including the CEO (McClain Mark D., $1M) and CTO (Schmitt Christopher, $205K). This is a bearish divergence from the bullish analyst signal. Institutional activity is strongly bullish: Norges Bank opened a new $235M position, Morgan Stanley added 32% ($7.4M), and Wells Fargo doubled its stake ($879K). FMR LLC nearly exited (-93% and -86% in two funds). Short interest is 59.1% of float, extremely high, indicating heavy bearish positioning. No congressional trades.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 8, 2026 18d ago | 144 | $20.77 | awaiting T+20 | — | $21.79 (+4.91%) |
Oct 7, 2026 19d ago | 144 | $20.02 | awaiting T+20 | — | $21.79 (+8.84%) |
Oct 7, 2026 19d ago | 144 | $20.02 | awaiting T+20 | — | $21.79 (+8.84%) |
Oct 7, 2026 19d ago | 144 | $20.02 | awaiting T+20 | — | $21.79 (+8.84%) |
Oct 7, 2026 19d ago | 144 | $20.02 | awaiting T+20 | — | $21.79 (+8.84%) |
Oct 7, 2026 19d ago | 144 | $20.02 | awaiting T+20 | — | $21.79 (+8.84%) |
Oct 7, 2026 19d ago | 144 | $20.02 | awaiting T+20 | — | $21.79 (+8.84%) |
Oct 6, 2026 20d ago | 144 | $19.58 | awaiting T+20 | — | $21.79 (+11.29%) |
Oct 6, 2026 20d ago | 144 | $19.58 | awaiting T+20 | — | $21.79 (+11.29%) |
Oct 6, 2026 20d ago | 144 | $19.58 | awaiting T+20 | — | $21.79 (+11.29%) |
US Market Status
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