The substantial discount and dilution signal near-term selling pressure. Monitor the stock for price stabilization after the 45-day lock-up expiration and watch for updates on the REC-4881 registrational trial design and REC-1245 expansion data in H2 2026.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Recursion Pharmaceuticals is offering 61,540,000 shares of Class A common stock at $3.25 per share, raising approximately $187.2 million in net proceeds. The offering is priced at a 13.1% discount to the last closing price of $3.74 and represents significant dilution of ~11.5% to existing shareholders. Proceeds will fund clinical programs including a registrational study for REC-4881 in FAP and dose expansion for REC-1245, as well as platform advancement and runway extension into 2029.
Key Facts
- 61,540,000 shares offered at $3.25 per share, a 13.1% discount to the $3.74 closing price on October 14, 2026
- Total offering size of $200,005,000; net proceeds of approximately $187.2 million after underwriting discounts and expenses
- Immediate dilution of $2.21 per share to new investors; as-adjusted net tangible book value per share rises from $0.81 to $1.04
- Pro forma shares outstanding will be 594,731,318, up from 533,191,318 as of June 30, 2026
- Preliminary cash balance of ~$561 million as of September 30, 2026, including $86 million from ATM sales in Q3 2026
- Sanofi optioned first development candidate from collaboration, triggering a $10 million milestone payment; total milestones received to date $144 million
- REC-4881 Phase 1b/2 TUPELO study showed 47% median reduction in total polyp burden at week 13; registrational trial anticipated in 2027
- REC-1245 Phase 1/2 DAHLIA study showed 91.7% disease control rate at 45 mg or 65 mg; 45 mg selected for monotherapy expansion
- Lock-up agreements for directors, executive officers, and certain holders for 45 days after the prospectus supplement date
Financial Impact
~$200 million offering at a 13.1% discount to market, resulting in ~11.5% dilution to existing shareholders
Risk Factors
- Immediate and substantial dilution of $2.21 per share to new investors
- Potential downward pressure from the 13.1% discount to the last closing price
- Risk of additional dilution from outstanding options, RSUs, and the remaining ATM program capacity of $213.3 million
- Clinical development risk for REC-4881 and REC-1245 programs
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 4 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 424B5 Filing (Primary) | 0001601830-26-000134 |
| Document: 0001601830-26-000134-index-headers.html | 0001601830-26-000134 |
| Document: 0001601830-26-000134-index.html | 0001601830-26-000134 |
| Document: 0001601830-26-000134.txt | 0001601830-26-000134 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 15, 2026 11d ago | 424B5 | $3.47 $3.58 | ▼ −3.32% | ▼ −3.23% | $4.09 (−18.18%) |
Oct 15, 2026 12d ago | 8-K | $4.16 $3.58 | ▼ −13.94% | ▼ −12.93% | $4.09 (−1.56%) |
Oct 15, 2026 12d ago | Press Release | $4.16 $3.58 | ▼ −13.94% | ▼ −12.93% | $4.09 (−1.56%) |
Oct 15, 2026 12d ago | Press Release | $4.16 $3.58 | ▲ +13.94% | ▲ +12.93% | $4.09 (+1.56%) |
Oct 15, 2026 12d ago | Press Release | $4.16 $3.58 | ▼ −13.94% | ▼ −12.93% | $4.09 (−1.56%) |
Oct 15, 2026 12d ago | 424B5 | $4.16 $3.58 | ▲ +13.94% | ▲ +12.93% | $4.09 (+1.56%) |
Oct 6, 2026 21d ago | 144 | $4.63 $3.84 | ▼ −17.17% | ▼ −17.03% | $4.09 (−11.56%) |
Oct 6, 2026 21d ago | 144 | $4.63 $3.84 | ▼ −17.17% | ▼ −17.03% | $4.09 (−11.56%) |
Sep 21, 2026 5w ago | 8-K | $3.97 $3.70 | ▼ −6.80% | ▼ −5.78% | $4.09 (+3.15%) |
Sep 10, 2026 6w ago | Insider Cluster | $3.20 $3.83 | ▲ +19.69% | ▲ +20.03% | $4.09 (+27.97%) |
US Market Status
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