8-K ·Filed Aug 10, 2026

REPL

Replimune Group, Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 6/10
Horizonimmediate Processed1mo ago SEC0001104659-26-093042
8-K context-dependent: Items 8.01
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The ~13% pricing discount signals urgency, likely tied to cash runway for phase 3 IGNYTE-3 confirmatory trial and TUDRIQEV launch costs. Historical long calls on REPL have performed well (63% win rate, +20% avg T+20), but this dilutive offering creates near-term overhang. Monitor for insider lock-up expiry; 45-day period starts after Aug 10 prospectus supplement — first potential unlocking ~Sep 24. If stock trades above $12.06 after close, some hedge unwinding may create volatility.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonimmediate
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
REPL ▲ +8.05% at T+20d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -8.05% · α vs SPY -8.96% · entry $13.67 → $14.77
Next anchor: T+60d in 5w
Latest observation: T+37 +104.41% FF3 residual α
Entry anchored
Aug 10, 07:49 AM ET
via 1-min bar
T+1d
-0.15%
call +0.15% · α -0.17%
$13.65
settled 7w ago
T+5d
+7.02%
call -7.02% · α -7.07%
$14.63
settled 7w ago
T+20d
+8.05%
call -8.05% · α -8.96%
$14.77
settled 24d ago
T+60d
—
call — · α —
—
in 5w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Replimune Group priced a $150M underwritten offering of 9.7M common shares at $12.06/share and 2.7M pre-funded warrants at $12.0599/warrant. Estimated net proceeds are approximately $140.5M. The dilutive offering more than doubles the company's cash balance but adds ~18% share overhang, typical for a commercial-stage biotech funding pipeline and commercialization.

Key Facts

  • Offering of 9,701,490 common shares + 2,736,340 pre-funded warrants (exercise price $0.0001)
  • Aggregate gross proceeds of approximately $150M; estimated net proceeds ~$140.5M
  • Offering priced at $12.06 per share, a ~13% discount to the $12.40 opening on Aug 7 pre-filing
  • Underwriters: Leerink Partners, J.P. Morgan, Cantor Fitzgerald
  • Closing expected August 11, 2026 with customary conditions
  • 45-day lock-up on insiders from date of final prospectus supplement

Financial Impact

~$140.5M net proceeds added to cash; 9.7M new shares + 2.7M pre-funded warrant shares = 12.4M total new common-equivalent shares, ~18% dilution on ~69M est. pre-offer shares (assuming ~70M pre-offer)

dilutioncashshareCount

Risk Factors

  • 18% dilution pressures near-term EPS; no revenue data in filing to offset
  • No stated use of proceeds detail — investors face uncertainty on cash burn rate allocation
  • Pre-funded warrants allow immediate secondary selling at any time (ex $0.0001 exercise), adding overhang
  • Biotech sector risk: confirmatory phase 3 data (IGNYTE-3) still pending; offering may signal need for more capital before readout

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)
Analyst Consensus
79% bullish (14 analysts)

Investment Themes

Biotech & Drug Discovery

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 8 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001104659-26-093042
Document: tm2622673d1_ex4-1.htm0001104659-26-093042
Document: tm2622673d1_8k.htm0001104659-26-093042
Document: tm2622673d1_ex99-1.htm0001104659-26-093042
Document: tm2622673d1_ex5-1.htm0001104659-26-093042
Document: 0001104659-26-093042-index-headers.html0001104659-26-093042
Document: 0001104659-26-093042-index.html0001104659-26-093042
Document: 0001104659-26-093042.txt0001104659-26-093042
20 reports for REPL
Performance horizon
75% Hit rate 12 of 16 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +188.35%Jul 30, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for REPL — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Aug 21, 2026
5w ago
Press Release
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$14.71 $13.07▲ +11.15%▲ +11.16%$13.04 (+11.35%)
Aug 19, 2026
6w ago
Insider Cluster
MIXED ★ 6/10
$14.05 $13.07▼ −6.98%▼ −6.98%$13.04 (−7.19%)
Aug 14, 2026
7w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$14.97 $13.11▼ −12.42%▼ −10.43%$13.04 (−12.89%)
Aug 14, 2026
7w ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$14.97 $13.11▼ −12.42%▼ −10.43%$13.04 (−12.89%)
Aug 12, 2026
7w ago
Insider Cluster
MIXED ★ 6/10
$15.19 $12.92▼ −14.94%▼ −13.20%$13.04 (−14.15%)
Aug 12, 2026
7w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$15.19 $12.92▼ −14.94%▼ −13.20%$13.04 (−14.15%)
Aug 10, 2026
7w ago
Press Release
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$13.67 $14.77▼ −8.05%▼ −8.96%$13.04 (+4.61%)
Aug 10, 2026
7w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$13.67 $14.77▼ −8.05%▼ −8.96%$13.04 (+4.61%)
Aug 10, 2026
7w ago
424B5
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$13.67 $14.77▼ −8.05%▼ −8.96%$13.04 (+4.61%)
Aug 7, 2026
8w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$12.06 $15.04▲ +24.71%▲ +25.11%$13.04 (+8.13%)
Showing 10 of 20

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