424B5 ·Filed Aug 10, 2026

REPL

Replimune Group, Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 7/10
Horizonweeks Processed1mo ago SEC0001104659-26-093040
Notable filing: 424B5
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The offering provides a cash infusion to fund TUDRIQEV's commercial launch and pipeline, but the ~13% immediate dilution and the Baker Brothers overhang from the shelf registration file 3 weeks ago create near-term selling pressure. Monitor the September 15 annual meeting for the authorized share count increase vote (150M to 300M) — failure would constrain future financing. With a ~28% short interest, the accelerated approval catalyst may have already been priced in; the real binary event is the IGNYTE-3 confirmatory trial data.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
REPL ▲ +8.05% at T+20d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -8.05% · α vs SPY -8.96% · entry $13.67 → $14.77
Next anchor: T+60d in 5w
Latest observation: T+37 +104.41% FF3 residual α
Entry anchored
Aug 10, 07:39 AM ET
via 1-min bar
T+1d
-0.15%
call +0.15% · α -0.17%
$13.65
settled 7w ago
T+5d
+7.02%
call -7.02% · α -7.07%
$14.63
settled 7w ago
T+20d
+8.05%
call -8.05% · α -8.96%
$14.77
settled 24d ago
T+60d
—
call — · α —
—
in 5w

Price Chart

Loading chart...

Executive Summary

Replimune Group is conducting a $150 million underwritten public offering of 9,701,490 shares of common stock and pre-funded warrants to purchase 2,736,340 shares, priced at $12.06 per share, at-the-market. Net proceeds of ~$140.5 million will fund the commercial launch of TUDRIQEV (RP1), recently granted accelerated FDA approval, and continued development of the RPx platform. The offering was taken down from a shelf registration filed 17 days ago that had flagged a 30% overhang from Baker Brothers affiliates' resale registration and a going-concern warning with cash runway only through Q1 2027. This dilutive capital raise adds near-term downside, extending the runway but at the cost of ~13% dilution to existing shareholders, while the company has never generated product revenue and faces ongoing confirmatory trial requirements for TUDRIQEV's accelerated approval.

Key Facts

  • Offering of 9,701,490 shares of common stock at $12.06 per share and pre-funded warrants to purchase 2,736,340 shares at $12.0599 each
  • Total offering size: $149,999,956; net proceeds to company: ~$140.5 million
  • Pro forma shares outstanding post-offering: 92,418,413 (excluding new pre-funded warrant shares of 2,736,340)
  • Immediate dilution of $9.18 per share to new investors (76% dilution from offering price to as-adjusted net tangible book value of $2.88)
  • Net tangible book value before offering: $166.2 million ($1.72 per share); after offering: $306.7 million ($2.88 per share)
  • FDA granted accelerated approval of TUDRIQEV (RP1) on August 6, 2026, for advanced melanoma post anti-PD-1 failure
  • Going-concern warning: accumulated deficit of $1,262.5M, net loss of $313.9M in FY2026 ended March 31, 2026; cash and short-term investments of $268.9M at March 31, 2026
  • Prior S-3/A filing (July 24, 2026) enabled Baker Brothers affiliates to resell up to 25,103,489 shares (~30% of pre-offering outstanding), with company receiving no proceeds

Financial Impact

Dilution of ~13% from new shares plus pre-funded warrants. Net proceeds of ~$140.5M extended cash runway by ~5-6 months at current burn rate; prior cash runway through Q1 2027 was the concern.

dilutioncash_runwayoutstanding_shares

Risk Factors

  • Dilution from new shares and pre-funded warrants, reducing EPS and ownership percentages
  • Going-concern risk persists: annual net loss of $313.9M vs. cash of $268.9M; need for additional capital likely within 12 months
  • TUDRIQEV accelerated approval requires confirmatory IGNYTE-3 trial; failure to confirm benefit could lead to FDA withdrawal
  • Baker Brothers resale registration overhang of up to 25M shares
  • Lock-up on management/insiders expires in 45 days, potentially enabling further selling

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)
Analyst Consensus
79% bullish (14 analysts)

Investment Themes

Biotech & Drug Discovery

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 4 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
424B5 Filing (Primary)0001104659-26-093040
Document: 0001104659-26-093040-index-headers.html0001104659-26-093040
Document: 0001104659-26-093040-index.html0001104659-26-093040
Document: 0001104659-26-093040.txt0001104659-26-093040
20 reports for REPL
Performance horizon
75% Hit rate 12 of 16 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +188.35%Jul 30, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for REPL — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Aug 21, 2026
5w ago
Press Release
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$14.71 $13.07▲ +11.15%▲ +11.16%$13.04 (+11.35%)
Aug 19, 2026
6w ago
Insider Cluster
MIXED ★ 6/10
$14.05 $13.07▼ −6.98%▼ −6.98%$13.04 (−7.19%)
Aug 14, 2026
7w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$14.97 $13.11▼ −12.42%▼ −10.43%$13.04 (−12.89%)
Aug 14, 2026
7w ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$14.97 $13.11▼ −12.42%▼ −10.43%$13.04 (−12.89%)
Aug 12, 2026
7w ago
Insider Cluster
MIXED ★ 6/10
$15.19 $12.92▼ −14.94%▼ −13.20%$13.04 (−14.15%)
Aug 12, 2026
7w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$15.19 $12.92▼ −14.94%▼ −13.20%$13.04 (−14.15%)
Aug 10, 2026
7w ago
Press Release
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$13.67 $14.77▼ −8.05%▼ −8.96%$13.04 (+4.61%)
Aug 10, 2026
7w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$13.67 $14.77▼ −8.05%▼ −8.96%$13.04 (+4.61%)
Aug 10, 2026
7w ago
424B5
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$13.67 $14.77▼ −8.05%▼ −8.96%$13.04 (+4.61%)
Aug 7, 2026
8w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$12.06 $15.04▲ +24.71%▲ +25.11%$13.04 (+8.13%)
Showing 10 of 20

US Market Status

Market Open — Closes in 53m

Subscribe to SecBot

Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence

Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.

Try SecBot Free Coming soon: SecBot Pro with alerts, watchlists, and API access