The double upgrade is a contrarian call from a moderate-accuracy firm facing headwinds from falling estimates and insider selling. Traders may wait for confirmation from fundamentals or a broader shift in sentiment before acting on this call alone.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Daiwa Capital double-upgraded Qualcomm (QCOM) from Neutral to Outperform and raised its price target to $225 from $140, implying 11% upside from the current $202.55. The call is a sharp contrarian to consensus: only 18 of 48 analysts rate it Buy, while 26 rate it Hold and 4 Sell. The consensus mean target of $168.50 sits 34% below Daiwa's new estimate. Daiwa's track record is moderate at 52% accuracy on 21 calls with an average return of 6.7%. The upgrade comes amid a 30-day period with 2 downgrades vs. only 1 upgrade, and EPS estimates have been revised down significantly — the current quarter estimate fell 9% in the past 30 days. Insider sales of $4.5M over the past week and a short interest ratio of 58.7% add caution. Bottom line: The double upgrade is a bold statement, but the weight of conflicting signals — falling estimates, insider selling, and a predominantly Hold consensus — suggests traders should treat this as an early call from a firm with a mixed record.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 48 analysts covering QCOM, 18 rate Buy (37.5%), 26 rate Hold (54.2%), and 4 rate Sell (8.3%). Consensus is tilted heavily Hold, with the majority neutral-to-bearish relative to the current price.
Current price at $202.55. Mean target is $168.50 (16.8% implied downside), median $160 (21% downside). Range: high $300, low $100. Daiwa's new $225 target is 33% above the mean and 41% above the median, placing it firmly above the consensus range.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Daiwa Capital | upgrade | Outperform | $225.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | JP Morgan | maintain | Neutral | $160.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $170.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | TD Cowen | maintain | Buy | $200.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | Citigroup | maintain | Neutral | $160.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | Susquehanna | maintain | Neutral | $160.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | RBC Capital | maintain | Sector Perform | $175.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | In-Line | $179.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | Barclays | maintain | Underweight | $150.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | Benchmark | maintain | Buy | $225.00 |
In the past 30 days: 1 upgrade (Daiwa) and 2 downgrades. EPS revisions are heavily negative: current-quarter EPS estimate fell from $2.45 to $2.22 (9% drop), and current fiscal year estimate fell from $11.11 to $10.73 (3.4% drop). Of 22 EPS revisions in the past 30 days, only 1 was upward.
Firm Track Record — Daiwa Capital
Daiwa Capital accuracy: 52% on 21 calls | avg return: 6.7%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSBC | 100% | 2/2 | -4.6% | top tier |
| WestPark Capital | 100% | 2/2 | 1.1% | top tier |
| Loop Capital | 100% | 2/2 | 6.5% | top tier |
| Keybanc | 67% | 2/3 | -0.3% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 60% | 3/5 | -4.5% | above average |
| TD Cowen | 50% | 1/2 | -3.7% | below average |
| Evercore ISI Group | 50% | 2/4 | 3.1% | below average |
| Rosenblatt | 50% | 3/6 | -2.8% | below average |
| Susquehanna | 50% | 3/6 | 4.9% | below average |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | 44% | 4/9 | -0.8% | below average |
Daiwa Capital has a 52% accuracy rate on 21 calls covering QCOM with an average return of 6.7%. Among 15 firms tracked, the top performers are HSBC, WestPark Capital, and Loop Capital (each 100% on 2 calls) while Baird and Barclays have the lowest accuracy at 33% each. Daiwa's 52% places it near the middle of the pack.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 28, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1q | $2.34 | $2.13 — $2.62 | $9.9B | ↑6 ↓0 |
| 0y | $10.73 | $10.47 — $11.39 | $42.3B | ↑3 ↓0 |
| 0q | $2.22 | $2.15 — $2.47 | $9.6B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $10.63 | $9.24 — $12.71 | $42.5B | ↑5 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider sales total $4.5M in the past week, including $3.65M from CEO Cristiano R. Amon. Congressional activity: one small sell by Rep. Moskowitz (D-FL) on Mar 31. Institutional moves are mixed: NORGES BANK reported a new $2.59B position then exited, while RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES exited entirely. Short interest is elevated at 58.7% of volume. These signals broadly diverge from Daiwa's bullish upgrade, suggesting market skepticism.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 10, 2026 21d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $176.88 $188.71 | ▲ +6.69% | ▲ +7.19% | $185.46 (+4.85%) |
Jun 25, 2026 14w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
May 8, 2026 20w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $237.08 $203.30 | ▼ −14.25% | ▼ −14.16% | $185.46 (−21.77%) |
May 5, 2026 21w ago | Insider Cluster | $186.45 $209.37 | ▲ +12.29% | ▲ +10.31% | $185.46 (−0.53%) |
Apr 30, 2026 22w ago | Insider Cluster | $179.65 $192.57 | ▲ +7.19% | ▲ +5.47% | $185.46 (+3.24%) |
Apr 30, 2026 22w ago | Insider Cluster | $179.65 $192.57 | ▲ +7.19% | ▲ +5.47% | $185.46 (+3.24%) |
Apr 17, 2026 23w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $135.98 $148.92 | ▼ −9.52% | ▼ −8.96% | $185.46 (−36.39%) |
Mar 12, 2026 29w ago | Insider Cluster | $131.18 $131.21 | ▲ +0.02% | ▲ +1.00% | $185.46 (+41.39%) |
US Market Status
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