The dramatic guidance reduction overrides a headline GAAP profit. Watch for analyst downgrades and potential covenant pressure if production falls below new minimum thresholds. The Aug 31 Series F warrant anniversary date is a catalyst — conversion would add significant dilution. The $125M working capital deficit and minimal liquidity suggest the company may need additional capital or asset sales.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Prairie Operating Co. reported Q2 2026 revenue of $98.9 million, up ~45% YoY, and GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders of $193.8 million ($1.75 basic EPS). However, the company significantly lowered full-year 2026 guidance: average daily production was cut to 23,000–25,000 Boe/d from 25,500–27,500 Boe/d, and Adjusted EBITDA guidance was slashed to $180M–$190M from $240M–$260M. The guidance reduction signals deteriorating operational outlook despite a net income boost driven by non-cash items (fair-value remeasurements), making this a bearish filing.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q2 2026 revenue of $98.9 million, ~45% YoY increase from $68.1 million.
- GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders of $193.8 million ($1.75 basic EPS) vs. $48.5 million a year ago; results include large non-cash gains on derivatives and financial instrument liabilities.
- Full-year 2026 guidance slashed: Average daily production cut to 23,000–25,000 Boe/d from 25,500–27,500 Boe/d; Adjusted EBITDA guidance lowered to $180M–$190M from $240M–$260M.
- Capital expenditure guidance reduced to $185M–$195M from $200M–$220M.
- Credit facility amendment on Aug 14, 2026 modified current ratio covenants and added a minimum production covenant; company was in compliance as of June 30, 2026.
- Working capital deficit of ~$125.5 million as of June 30, 2026; only $39.0 million available under $475M borrowing base.
- Series F preferred stock balance reduced from 121,050 shares (Dec 2025) to 78,000 shares (June 2026) via partial refinancing; warrant date extended to Aug 31, 2026.
Financial Impact
Full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance cut by $60-70 million (25-27% reduction vs. prior $240-260M). Production guidance reduced by ~10%. Street consensus likely to be materially reset.
Risk Factors
- Guidance cut signals operational underperformance vs. prior expectations, likely triggering sell-side downgrades.
- Tight liquidity ($39M available on credit line vs. $125M working cap deficit) raises refinancing risk.
- Series F preferred warrant extension to Aug 31 creates near-term overhang; conversion would dilute common shareholders further.
- New production covenant in credit facility increases risk of future covenant breach.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001140361-26-033259 |
| Document: ef20079578_8k.htm | 0001140361-26-033259 |
| Document: 0001140361-26-033259-index-headers.html | 0001140361-26-033259 |
| Document: 0001140361-26-033259-index.html | 0001140361-26-033259 |
| Document: 0001140361-26-033259.txt | 0001140361-26-033259 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001140361-26-033259 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 22, 2026 4w ago | Institutional Cluster | $0.4002 $0.4210 | ▲ +5.20% | ▲ +6.38% | $0.3381 (−15.52%) |
Aug 31, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $0.5090 $0.4679 | ▼ −8.07% | ▼ −7.93% | $0.3381 (−33.58%) |
Aug 17, 2026 10w ago | 8-K | $0.7100 $0.5111 | ▲ +28.01% | ▲ +26.82% | $0.3381 (+52.38%) |
Aug 17, 2026 10w ago | Press Release | $0.7100 $0.5111 | ▲ +28.01% | ▲ +26.82% | $0.3381 (+52.38%) |
Aug 17, 2026 10w ago | 8-K | $0.7100 $0.5111 | ▲ +28.01% | ▲ +26.82% | $0.3381 (+52.38%) |
Aug 10, 2026 11w ago | 8-K | $0.8150 $0.7100 | ▼ −12.88% | ▼ −12.84% | $0.3381 (−58.52%) |
Jul 22, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $0.8153 $0.7002 | ▼ −14.12% | ▼ −11.72% | $0.3381 (−58.53%) |
Jul 9, 2026 15w ago | 8-K | $0.7290 $0.7175 | ▲ +1.58% | ▲ +1.02% | $0.3381 (+53.62%) |
Jun 11, 2026 19w ago | Institutional Cluster | $0.8092 $0.6582 | ▼ −18.66% | ▼ −19.09% | $0.3381 (−58.22%) |
Jun 11, 2026 19w ago | Press Release | $0.8092 $0.6582 | ▼ −18.66% | ▼ −19.09% | $0.3381 (−58.22%) |
US Market Status
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