The strong Q2 beat and raised Q3 guidance confirm PicPay's growth trajectory and operating leverage, but the sequential decline in guided Q3 net income (due to tax incentive normalization) and rising NPL 90+ warrant monitoring. Watch for the Q3 earnings release to see if credit quality stabilizes and if the Kovr acquisition begins contributing to earnings. The stock's 92% analyst bullish consensus suggests expectations are high, so any deviation from guidance could trigger significant moves.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
PicPay (PICS) reported strong Q2 2026 results, with net revenue up 67% YoY to R$4.1 billion and adjusted net income up 135% YoY to R$283 million, both exceeding guidance. The credit portfolio grew 99% YoY to R$31.9 billion, driven by secured lending, while asset quality metrics showed mixed trends with NPL 90+ rising to 9.8% but early delinquency improving to 7.5%. Q3 guidance points to continued growth with total credit portfolio expected at ~R$34.7 billion and adjusted net income of ~R$265 million, though this implies a sequential decline from Q2 due to tax incentive normalization.
Key Facts
- Net revenue reached R$4.1 billion in Q2 2026, up 67% YoY and exceeding the ~R$3.6 billion managerial revenue guidance.
- Adjusted net income totaled R$283 million, up 135% YoY and 15.5% above the ~R$245 million guidance.
- Total credit portfolio reached R$31.9 billion, up 99% YoY and 3% above the ~R$31.0 billion guidance.
- Secured and partially secured products now represent 55% of the credit portfolio, up from 45% a year ago.
- NPL 90+ increased to 9.8% from 8.4% in Q1 2026, driven by portfolio seasoning; early delinquency (15-90 days) improved to 7.5% from 8.4%.
- ARPAC reached R$92.0, up 52% YoY, with cost to serve at R$21.3 per active client, yielding a 4.3x ARPAC-to-CTS ratio.
- Q3 2026 guidance: total credit portfolio ~R$34.7B, managerial revenues ~R$4.04B, adjusted net income ~R$265 million (down 6% QoQ due to tax incentive normalization).
- The acquisition of Kovr was completed in August 2026, expected to consume ~150 bps of capital in Q3.
- Total capital ratio stood at 17.6% and CET1 at 15.6%, with ~R$450 million held at the holding company yet to be injected.
Financial Impact
Net revenue of R$4.1B (+67% YoY), adjusted net income of R$283M (+135% YoY), credit portfolio of R$31.9B (+99% YoY)
Risk Factors
- NPL 90+ rising to 9.8% from 8.4% QoQ due to portfolio seasoning, with potential for further increases.
- Q3 adjusted net income guidance of ~R$265M implies a 6% sequential decline from Q2's R$283M, which may disappoint momentum-focused investors.
- Cost of risk at 3.9% is at the high end of the guided range, and Q3 guidance of 3.9%-4.1% suggests no near-term improvement.
- Capital consumption from the Kovr acquisition (~150 bps) could pressure capital ratios if portfolio growth continues at the current pace.
- Elevated marketing spend (+147% YoY) and customer acquisition costs (+201% YoY) may not be sustainable if growth decelerates.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 3 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 6-K Filing (Primary) | 0001213900-26-093207 |
| Document: 0001213900-26-093207-index.html | 0001213900-26-093207 |
| Document: 0001213900-26-093207.txt | 0001213900-26-093207 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 14, 2026 13d ago | Press Release | $13.28 | awaiting T+20 | — | $7.59 (−42.85%) |
Aug 24, 2026 9w ago | 6-K | $10.85 $9.71 | ▼ −10.51% | ▼ −11.75% | $7.59 (−30.05%) |
Aug 24, 2026 9w ago | Press Release | $10.85 $9.71 | ▼ −10.51% | ▼ −11.75% | $7.59 (−30.05%) |
Aug 17, 2026 10w ago | Press Release | $10.27 | awaiting T+20 | — | $7.59 (−26.10%) |
Aug 10, 2026 11w ago | 6-K | $10.94 $10.60 | ▼ −3.11% | ▼ −2.05% | $7.59 (−30.62%) |
Jul 29, 2026 12w ago | Press Release | $12.13 $10.61 | ▲ +12.53% | ▲ +17.55% | $7.59 (+37.43%) |
Jul 23, 2026 13w ago | 6-K / PRESS-RELEASE | $11.85 $10.60 | ▼ −10.55% | ▼ −14.17% | $7.59 (−35.95%) |
Jun 12, 2026 19w ago | Insider Cluster | $10.82 $11.81 | ▲ +9.15% | ▲ +9.90% | $7.59 (−29.85%) |
Jun 10, 2026 19w ago | Insider Cluster | $9.40 $11.58 | ▲ +23.19% | ▲ +19.57% | $7.59 (−19.26%) |
Jun 10, 2026 19w ago | Insider Cluster | $9.40 $11.58 | ▲ +23.19% | ▲ +19.57% | $7.59 (−19.26%) |
US Market Status
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