Watch for FRLPC margin recovery in Q4 2026 and into 2027 as the September APR increases flow through, and monitor the pace of new bank partner onboarding given the record pipeline. The $2B+ in committed capital structures provides funding visibility for continued volume growth.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Pagaya reported record Q3 2026 GAAP net income of $50M, up 121% YoY, with network volume of $3.6B (+29% YoY) and total revenue of $390M (+12% YoY). The company raised full-year GAAP net income guidance for the third time this year to $162M-$182M, while FRLPC margin contracted 91bps to 4.1% due to higher benchmark rates, partially offset by APR increases implemented in September.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Record GAAP net income of $50M in Q3 2026, up 121% YoY from $22.5M
- Network volume of $3.6B, up 29% YoY, at the high end of guidance ($3.425B-$3.625B)
- Total revenue and other income of $390M, up 12% YoY, at the high end of guidance ($370M-$390M)
- Adjusted EBITDA of $130M, up 22% YoY, at the high end of guidance ($120M-$130M)
- GAAP diluted EPS of $0.52 vs consensus estimate of $1.00 (not comparable due to basis difference)
- Full-year 2026 GAAP net income guidance raised to $162M-$182M (from $155M-$180M previously)
- FRLPC margin contracted 91bps YoY to 4.1% due to higher benchmark rates; APRs raised 100bps in PL and 140bps in Auto in September
- Closed over $2B of committed capital across three structures: $700M auto forward flow, $700M PL VFN, $850M revolving PL securitization
- Onboarded Citizens Financial Group and FNBO as new bank partners; partner pipeline up 50% YoY
- Core operating expenses flat for 7 consecutive quarters at $45M
Financial Impact
GAAP net income of $50M, up $27M YoY; Adjusted EBITDA of $130M, up $23M YoY; Full-year net income guidance raised by ~$5M at midpoint
Risk Factors
- Higher benchmark rates (up ~130bps YTD) continue to compress FRLPC margins until APR increases fully offset the impact
- Application-to-volume conversion remains at ~1%, limiting near-term volume acceleration without credit easing
- Fair value of investment portfolio adjusted downward by $43M in Q3, reflecting mark-to-market losses
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001883085-26-000062 |
| Document: a3q26earningspressreleas.htm | 0001883085-26-000062 |
| Document: pgy-20261029.htm | 0001883085-26-000062 |
| Document: 0001883085-26-000062-index-headers.html | 0001883085-26-000062 |
| Document: 0001883085-26-000062-index.html | 0001883085-26-000062 |
| Document: 0001883085-26-000062.txt | 0001883085-26-000062 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001883085-26-000062 |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 29, 2026 3d ago | 8-K | $20.81 $19.23 | ▼ −7.59% | ▼ −5.82% | $19.23 (−7.59%) |
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Jul 30, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $17.64 $19.27 | ▲ +9.24% | ▲ +8.53% | $19.23 (+9.01%) |
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