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6-K ·Filed Sep 21, 2026

PBR

PETROBRAS - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA
BULLISH
Impact 5/10
Horizonweeks Processed1mo ago SEC0001292814-26-004612
Notable filing: 6-K
Actionable Insight ▲ Bullish

Monitor publication of implementing regulations for Provisional Measure No. 1,391/2026, which will determine the effective start date and mechanics of the subsidy. The cumulative R$2.12/liter subsidy could meaningfully support Petrobras's diesel segment cash flows in the near term, particularly if extended beyond 30 days.

DirectionBullish
Confidencemedium
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
PBR ▲ +23.90% at T+20d
LONG call ✓ call won +23.90% · α vs SPY +24.80% · entry $20.63 → $25.56
Next anchor: T+60d in 7w
Latest observation: T+24 +12.62% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Sep 21, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+0.63%
call +0.63% · α +0.65%
$20.76
settled 5w ago
T+5d
+0.10%
call +0.10% · α +1.12%
$20.65
settled 4w ago
T+20d
+23.90%
call +23.90% · α +24.80%
$25.56
settled 9d ago
T+60d
Pending
in 7w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Petrobras announced Board approval to join a new Brazilian economic subsidy program for diesel fuel, which provides R$1.00 per liter of Grade 'A' diesel for 30 days (extendable). This subsidy is cumulative with an existing R$1.12/liter program, potentially boosting cash flows from diesel sales without requiring immediate pass-through of international price volatility. The voluntary program is subject to final regulatory implementation.

Key Facts

  • Board approved participation in economic subsidy program per Provisional Measure No. 1,391/2026
  • Subsidy set at R$1.00 per liter of road-use Grade 'A' diesel for 30 days, extendable by another 30 days
  • New subsidy is cumulative with existing R$1.12/liter subsidy from Provisional Measure No. 1,363/2026
  • Program is voluntary; execution subject to publication and review of regulations
  • Company maintains commercial strategy focused on market share, refining asset optimization, and avoiding immediate pass-through of temporary volatility

Financial Impact

Cumulative diesel subsidy of R$2.12 per liter (R$1.12 existing + R$1.00 new) for up to 60 days; total financial impact depends on diesel sales volume during the period, which is not disclosed

revenuecash flow

Risk Factors

  • Subsidy program is subject to regulatory implementation and may be delayed or modified
  • 30-day initial period may be too short to have material impact on annual financials
  • Voluntary nature means participation could be withdrawn if terms become unfavorable

Investment Themes

Traditional Energy

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 4 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
6-K Filing (Primary)0001292814-26-004612
Document: 0001292814-26-004612-index-headers.html0001292814-26-004612
Document: 0001292814-26-004612-index.html0001292814-26-004612
Document: 0001292814-26-004612.txt0001292814-26-004612
21 reports for PBR
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate @ T+20 5 of 5 directional calls Went positive at some point 7 of 8 best @ T+20▲ +21.38%Sep 22, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for PBR — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 16, 2026
11d ago
Institutional Cluster
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$25.56awaiting T+20—$22.50 (−11.97%)
Oct 13, 2026
14d ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$25.94awaiting T+20—$22.50 (−13.26%)
Oct 13, 2026
14d ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$25.94awaiting T+20—$22.50 (−13.26%)
Oct 13, 2026
14d ago
6-K
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$25.94awaiting T+20—$22.50 (−13.26%)
Oct 8, 2026
19d ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$24.69awaiting T+20—$22.50 (−8.87%)
Oct 2, 2026
25d ago
6-K
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$21.65awaiting T+20—$22.50 (+3.93%)
Sep 25, 2026
4w ago
25-NSE
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$20.37 $26.16▲ +28.42%▲ +29.90%$22.50 (+10.46%)
Sep 22, 2026
5w ago
6-K
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$21.14 $25.66▲ +21.38%▲ +20.69%$22.50 (+6.43%)
Sep 21, 2026
5w ago
6-K
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$20.63 $25.56▲ +23.90%▲ +24.80%$22.50 (+9.06%)
Sep 21, 2026
5w ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$20.63 $25.56▲ +23.90%▲ +24.80%$22.50 (+9.06%)
Showing 10 of 21

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Thu (12h 2m)

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Report published Sep 21, 2026