The cluster is too mixed and passive-dominated to signal a strong directional thesis. Monitor next 13F for follow-through from active managers (D.E. Shaw, Citadel) and whether UBS's near-exit becomes a full exit. Given poor historical calibration on ORLA reports, avoid over-weighting this signal.
Executive Summary
A mixed institutional cluster in Orla Mining Ltd. (ORLA) for Q3 2025 shows 8 buyers accumulating $77.1M in net new positions (led by Vanguard, Amundi, D.E. Shaw, and Citadel) while 4 sellers reduced holdings by $21.1M (led by UBS near-exiting and Morgan Stanley trimming). The buying is dominated by mega-passive index funds and quant funds, which weakens the signal of a shared active thesis. The selling is concentrated in passive rebalancing and quant trims, not fundamental deterioration. Historical performance on prior ORLA reports is poor (0% win rate at T+20, avg alpha -25.6%), and calibration data shows low observed probability of positive outcomes at scores 6-8, warranting a conservative impact score.
Key Financial Metrics
Institutional Positions
Net institutional flow: $56.0M
▲ Buyers (8)
| Institution | Action | Change | Position Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard | DOUBLED | +1628.2% | $35.1M | $33.2M |
| Amundi | ADD | +35.5% | $54.5M | $19.5M |
| D.E. Shaw | DOUBLED | +246.6% | $15.6M | $11.4M |
| Citadel | DOUBLED | +239.9% | $11.1M | $8.1M |
| BofA | ADD | +25.8% | $10.0M | $2.6M |
| Legal & General Group | ADD | +31.8% | $5.5M | $1.6M |
| Nuveen | ADD | +33.1% | $2.4M | $736.0K |
| Wells Fargo | DOUBLED | +5265.8% | $22.0K | $22.0K |
▼ Sellers (4)
| Institution | Action | Change | Prev Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | NEAR_EXIT | -88.2% | $15.5M | -$13.5M |
| Morgan Stanley | TRIM | -25.7% | $16.1M | -$3.2M |
| Invesco | TRIM | -45% | $5.9M | -$2.4M |
| Two Sigma | TRIM | -34.5% | $6.6M | -$1.9M |
Key Facts
- 8 institutional buyers added $77.1M in net new positions, with Vanguard doubling its stake (+1,628% shares) to $35.1M and Amundi adding $19.5M to reach $54.5M
- 4 institutional sellers reduced holdings by $21.1M, led by UBS near-exiting (-88.2% shares, -$13.5M) and Morgan Stanley trimming (-25.7%, -$3.2M)
- Quant funds D.E. Shaw and Citadel both doubled their positions, adding $11.4M and $8.1M respectively
- Passive/index funds dominate both sides (Vanguard, BofA, Amundi buying; Invesco, UBS, Morgan Stanley selling), diluting the signal of a coordinated active thesis
- Historical reports on ORLA have a 0% win rate at T+20 with average alpha of -25.6% vs SPY, suggesting prior bullish calls were over-scored
Financial Impact
8 buyers accumulated $77.1M in new positions while 4 sellers reduced holdings by $21.1M, net institutional inflow of approximately $56.0M
Risk Factors
- 45-day 13F reporting lag means positions may have already been unwound
- Passive/index fund buying may reflect index rebalancing, not fundamental conviction
- Historical ORLA reports show 0% win rate at T+20 with large negative alpha, suggesting the stock has been a poor performer following prior cluster signals
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | inst-cluster-ORLA-2025-Q3 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul 31, 2026 9w ago | 6-K | $9.42 awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
Jul 22, 2026 10w ago | 6-K | $9.31 $8.94 | ▼ −3.97% | ▼ −1.57% | — |
Jul 10, 2026 12w ago | 6-K | $9.76 $8.68 | ▼ −11.07% | ▼ −10.51% | — |
Jul 9, 2026 12w ago | 6-K | $9.75 $8.68 | ▼ −10.97% | ▼ −10.84% | — |
Jun 11, 2026 16w ago | Institutional Cluster | $10.36 $11.13 | ▲ +7.43% | ▲ +7.00% | — |
Jun 10, 2026 16w ago | 6-K | $9.78 $11.57 | ▲ +18.30% | ▲ +14.87% | — |
Jun 5, 2026 17w ago | 6-K | $10.81 $10.65 | ▼ −1.48% | ▼ −2.05% | — |
Jun 4, 2026 17w ago | 6-K | $11.33 $10.36 | ▼ −8.56% | ▼ −6.01% | — |
Jun 4, 2026 17w ago | 6-K | $11.33 $10.36 | ▼ −8.56% | ▼ −6.01% | — |
Jun 1, 2026 17w ago | 6-K | $12.32 $10.81 | ▲ +12.26% | ▲ +9.51% | — |
US Market Status
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