The activist (Elliott) and sovereign (Norges Bank) new/large adds provide a framework for a bull thesis, but the historical calibration on OR is brutally negative (0% win rate, -8.2% avg T+20). The Fidelity/$102M trim and RenTech trim by large passive/quants dominate the cluster signal. With 76% bullish consensus already priced in, the heavy de-risking by the largest holders is the credible edge here. Monitor for any follow-on commentary from Elliott or future 13F timing signals; the near-term risk skew is downward.
Executive Summary
3. 13F cluster for Q4 2025 reveals a mixed institutional signal: $289M total buying (+$155M net influx) led by an activist, a sovereign wealth fund, and quants, while three large passive/quant sellers trimmed $129M. The net of buying vs selling is modestly positive in dollar terms, but the heavyweight passive funds (Fidelity, BofA) and RenTech are de-risking — that is the more consequential signal given OR's negative T+20 history following prior reports.
Key Financial Metrics
Institutional Positions
Net institutional flow: $26.1M
▲ Buyers (5)
| Institution | Action | Change | Position Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norges Bank | NEW | +100% | $88.6M | $88.6M |
| Elliott | ADD | +42.7% | $110.1M | $22.7M |
| Two Sigma | ADD | +94.4% | $47.4M | $19.8M |
| Morgan Stanley | DOUBLED | +157.5% | $41.6M | $23.3M |
| D.E. Shaw | ADD | +83.8% | $1.7M | $656.0K |
▼ Sellers (3)
| Institution | Action | Change | Prev Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity | TRIM | -29.5% | $270.1M | -$101.7M |
| BofA | TRIM | -34.4% | $44.8M | -$18.9M |
| RenTech | TRIM | -27.6% | $23.3M | -$8.4M |
Key Facts
- Net institutional cluster: 5 buyers ($155M added) vs 3 sellers ($129M trimmed) — dollar net ~+$26M on $5.9B market cap, barely 0.4% of float.
- Most active-buy signal: Elliott Management ADDED 42.7% ($22.7M) to a $110M position; Norges Bank opened a NEW $88.6M position.
- Largest seller: Fidelity trimmed 29.5% of its stake, reducing by $102M to $168M — the single biggest dollar move in the cluster.
- Historical calibration on OR shows 0% win rate at T+20 across 9 prior settled reports, avg P&L -8.24% and alpha -11.75% — the stock has consistently underperformed predictions.
- Score-6/7 cells have observed up-move probabilities of 36% and 32% in this segment — bearish skew dominates.
Financial Impact
5 buyers accumulated $289M in aggregate positions (net change +$155M) while 3 sellers reduced holdings by $129M. Net dollar influx of approximately $26M, or ~0.4% of the $5.9B market cap.
Risk Factors
- Fidelity's $102M trim is nearly 4x the size of any single buy — its selling motive (fundamental red flag vs sector rotation) is unknown but historically presages weakness for OR.
- Historical T+20 performance on prior OR predictions: -8.2% average with 0% win rate — the model has systematically over-scored this name.
- Gold/silver royalty stocks have faced macro headwinds from USD strength and falling gold prices in early H1 2026; the cluster may be late to a thesis that is already reversing.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | inst-cluster-OR-2025-Q4 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul 8, 2026 12w ago | 6-K | $29.23 $34.34 | ▲ +17.48% | ▲ +15.17% | — |
Jul 2, 2026 13w ago | 6-K | $31.44 $34.28 | ▼ −9.03% | ▼ −5.47% | — |
Jun 11, 2026 16w ago | Institutional Cluster | $32.74 $37.31 | ▲ +13.96% | ▲ +9.56% | — |
May 7, 2026 21w ago | 6-K | $38.42 $30.76 | ▼ −19.94% | ▼ −24.78% | — |
May 6, 2026 21w ago | 6-K | $37.48 $30.43 | ▼ −18.81% | ▼ −22.64% | — |
Apr 16, 2026 24w ago | 6-K | $40.87 $28.73 | ▼ −29.70% | ▼ −36.75% | — |
Apr 14, 2026 24w ago | 6-K | $40.11 $29.75 | ▼ −25.83% | ▼ −34.35% | — |
Apr 14, 2026 24w ago | Press Release | $40.11 $29.75 | ▼ −25.83% | ▼ −34.35% | — |
Apr 8, 2026 25w ago | 6-K | $40.23 $31.44 | ▼ −21.85% | ▼ −32.31% | — |
Mar 30, 2026 26w ago | Press Release | $38.02 $32.25 | ▼ −15.18% | ▼ −27.56% | — |
US Market Status
Subscribe to SecBot
Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence
Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.
Try SecBot Free Coming soon: SecBot Pro with alerts, watchlists, and API access