6-K ·Filed Aug 11, 2026

ONON

On Holding AG
BULLISH
Impact 7/10
Horizonweeks Processed1mo ago SEC0001858985-26-000018
Actionable Insight ▲ Bullish

On's Q2 results show accelerating DTC momentum, expanding margins, and strong cash generation, all while absorbing higher US tariffs. The raised gross margin guidance and tariff refund catalyst provide upside to H2 estimates. However, deliberate wholesale sell-in moderation in a promotional environment and the potential for further US tariff escalation under Section 301 are key risks to monitor. The stock's strong historical reaction to positive filings (86% win rate at T+20) supports a constructive near-term view.

DirectionBullish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
ONON ▼ -13.17% at T+20d
LONG call ✗ call lost -13.17% · α vs SPY -12.11% · entry $30.91 → $26.84
Next anchor: T+60d in 5w
Latest observation: T+35 -2.41% FF3 residual α
Entry anchored
Aug 11, 06:10 AM ET
via 1-min bar
T+1d
+0.32%
call +0.32% · α +0.07%
$31.01
settled 7w ago
T+5d
+0.39%
call +0.39% · α +0.79%
$31.03
settled 6w ago
T+20d
-13.17%
call -13.17% · α -12.11%
$26.84
settled 23d ago
T+60d
—
call — · α —
—
in 5w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

On Holding AG reported strong Q2 2026 results with net sales of CHF 850.3 million (+13.5% YoY, +21.6% constant currency), driven by DTC growth (+26.0%) and APAC expansion (+43.1%). Gross margin expanded 390 bps to 65.4% despite higher US tariffs, and net income swung to CHF 105.0 million from a loss of CHF 40.9 million in Q2 2025. The company raised full-year gross margin guidance to at least 65.0% and reiterated adjusted EBITDA margin guidance of 19.5%-20.0%, while guiding for low-20% constant currency net sales growth for FY2026. The filing also disclosed receipt of approximately CHF 27.9 million in IEEPA tariff refunds post-quarter-end, to be recognized in Q3 2026. The cross-filing context with the 20-F annual report provides baseline financial context, and the actuarial verdicts flag this as an amplified signal given the combination of annual, activist-context, and offering-context filings — though no activist or offering documents are present in this batch, the historical calibration suggests strong positive momentum for this filing type.

Key Facts

  • Q2 2026 net sales of CHF 850.3 million, up 13.5% YoY (21.6% constant currency)
  • DTC channel sales grew 26.0% to CHF 388.4 million, reaching 45.7% of total net sales
  • Gross profit margin expanded to 65.4% from 61.5% YoY, despite higher US import tariffs
  • Net income of CHF 105.0 million vs. loss of CHF 40.9 million in Q2 2025; diluted EPS Class A of CHF 0.31 vs. (CHF 0.12)
  • Adjusted EBITDA of CHF 168.1 million, up 23.5% YoY; margin improved to 19.8% from 18.2%
  • APAC net sales surged 43.1% YoY (54.7% constant currency); apparel grew 47.7% (56.2% constant currency)
  • Cash and cash equivalents increased to CHF 1,205.6 million from CHF 1,019.9 million at year-end 2025
  • FY2026 guidance: low-20% constant currency net sales growth; gross margin at least 65.0%; adjusted EBITDA margin 19.5%-20.0%
  • Received ~CHF 27.9 million in IEEPA tariff refunds post-quarter-end, to be recognized in Q3 2026
  • No amounts drawn on CHF 700 million credit facility; fully compliant with all covenants

Financial Impact

Q2 2026 net sales CHF 850.3M (+13.5% YoY); gross profit CHF 555.7M (+20.6%); net income CHF 105.0M (vs. -CHF 40.9M loss); adjusted EBITDA CHF 168.1M (+23.5%); FY2026 guidance implies net sales of CHF 3.47B-3.56B at spot rates

revenuegross marginnet incomeadjusted EBITDAEPScash and cash equivalents

Risk Factors

  • Deliberate moderation of wholesale sell-in in a promotional environment could pressure H2 wholesale revenue growth
  • Potential additional US tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, announced in July 2026
  • Foreign exchange volatility from functional currency change to USD while reporting in CHF
  • Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and potential disruption to regional trade routes
  • Highly promotional market environment in the Americas could pressure full-price discipline

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
Rubber & Plastics Footwear
Analyst Consensus
83% bullish (36 analysts)

Investment Themes

Consumer & Retail

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 8 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
6-K Filing (ONON) — Batch item 10001858985-26-000018
Document: a26q2-exhibit992xmda.htm0001858985-26-000018
Document: a26q2-ex993xpressrelease.htm0001858985-26-000018
Document: onholdingag-20260630.htm0001858985-26-000018
Document: 0001858985-26-000018-index-headers.html0001858985-26-000018
Document: 0001858985-26-000018-index.html0001858985-26-000018
Document: 0001858985-26-000018.txt0001858985-26-000018
6-K Filing (ONON) — Batch item 80001858985-26-000018
8 reports for ONON
Performance horizon
67% Hit rate 2 of 3 directional calls best @ T+5▲ +12.62%May 12, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for ONON — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Aug 17, 2026
6w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$31.31 $26.76▼ −14.53%▼ −12.55%$30.85 (−1.47%)
Aug 11, 2026
7w ago
6-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$30.91 $26.84▼ −13.17%▼ −12.11%$30.85 (−0.19%)
Jul 6, 2026
12w ago
144
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$36.62 $37.95▲ +3.63%▲ +2.30%$30.85 (−15.76%)
May 28, 2026
18w ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$40.82 $35.42▼ −13.23%▼ −11.43%$30.85 (−24.42%)
May 15, 2026
20w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$37.26 $38.69▲ +3.84%▲ +1.72%$30.85 (−17.20%)
May 13, 2026
20w ago
144
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$36.84 $38.58▲ +4.72%▲ +5.58%$30.85 (−16.26%)
May 12, 2026
20w ago
6-K
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$33.83 $38.00▲ +12.33%▲ +14.05%$30.85 (−8.81%)
Apr 17, 2026
24w ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$37.25 $38.10▲ +2.28%▼ −1.92%$30.85 (−17.18%)
Showing 8 of 8

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Mon (38h 38m)

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