8-K ·Filed Aug 3, 2026

ON

ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORP
BULLISH
Impact 7/10
Horizonweeks Processed1mo ago SEC0001140361-26-030989
8-K Item 2.02: Earnings release
Actionable Insight ▲ Bullish

The strong beat and raised guidance, particularly the AI data center doubling commentary and PSG segment acceleration, suggest the cyclical recovery thesis is playing out. Watch for continued PSG momentum and margin expansion in Q3; the stock should re-rate higher if guidance is sustained.

DirectionBullish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
ON ▼ -10.06% at T+20d
LONG call ✗ call lost -10.06% · α vs SPY -8.83% · entry $80.78 → $72.65
Next anchor: T+60d in 25d
Latest observation: T+39 +5.12% FF3 residual α
Entry anchored
Aug 3, 04:53 PM ET
via exchange tick
T+1d
-4.79%
call -4.79% · α -4.59%
$76.91
settled 8w ago
T+5d
+0.41%
call +0.41% · α +0.51%
$81.11
settled 8w ago
T+20d
-10.06%
call -10.06% · α -8.83%
$72.65
settled 5w ago
T+60d
—
call — · α —
—
in 25d

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

ON Semiconductor reported Q2 2026 revenue of $1.604B (+9% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.74, beating consensus estimates of $0.72 EPS on $1.59B revenue. The beat was driven by 19% YoY growth in the Power Solutions Group (PSG) segment, AI data center revenue expected to more than double in 2026, and strong operating leverage with non-GAAP operating margin expanding 350bps YoY to 20.8%. Guidance for Q3 2026 revenue of $1.65-1.75B and non-GAAP EPS of $0.81-0.93 was above consensus, signaling continued momentum.

Key Financial Metrics

EPS
$0.74
est $0.72 · +2.8%
Revenue
$1.6B
est $1.6B · +0.8% · +9.2% YoY
Rating
beat
Guidance
$1,650 to $1,750 million
raised
Free Cash Flow
$425.4M
Gross Margin
38.4%

Key Facts

  • Revenue of $1.604B (+9% YoY) beat consensus of $1.59B
  • Non-GAAP EPS of $0.74 beat consensus of $0.72 (+2.8%)
  • PSG segment revenue grew 19% YoY to $829M
  • Non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 20.8% from 17.3% YoY
  • Free cash flow of $425.4M quadrupled YoY from $106.1M
  • Q3 2026 guidance: revenue $1.65-1.75B, non-GAAP EPS $0.81-0.93, both above consensus
  • AI data center revenue expected to more than double in 2026
  • Share repurchases of $332M in Q2, YTD returns ~105% of FCF

Financial Impact

Q2 revenue beat consensus by ~$14M (0.9%), non-GAAP EPS beat by $0.02 (2.8%). Q3 guidance midpoint $1.70B revenue and $0.87 EPS are above consensus of $1.67B and $0.82.

revenueepsoperating marginfree cash flowguidance

Risk Factors

  • AMG segment revenue declined 2% YoY, indicating ongoing weakness in automotive end-markets
  • GAAP operating income included $41.2M in restructuring charges; elevated debt of $4.46B post-convertible note issuance adds financial leverage risk
  • Historical calibration shows past bullish calls on ON have underperformed at T+20 (avg alpha -2.07%), suggesting the market may already price in recovery

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Semiconductors & Related Devices
Analyst Consensus
49% bullish (39 analysts)

Investment Themes

Semiconductors

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001140361-26-030989
Document: ef20079200_8k.htm0001140361-26-030989
Document: 0001140361-26-030989-index-headers.html0001140361-26-030989
Document: 0001140361-26-030989-index.html0001140361-26-030989
Document: 0001140361-26-030989.txt0001140361-26-030989
8-K Data (Synthetic)0001140361-26-030989
23 reports for ON
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate 7 of 7 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +29.60%Apr 27, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for ON — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Aug 21, 2026
6w ago
S-4
NEUTRAL ★ 6/10
$74.21 $71.72▼ −3.36%▼ −4.37%$83.58 (+12.63%)
Aug 13, 2026
7w ago
425
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$81.56 $76.14▼ −6.65%▼ −4.90%$83.58 (+2.48%)
Aug 13, 2026
7w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$81.56 $76.14▼ −6.65%▼ −4.90%$83.58 (+2.48%)
Aug 3, 2026
8w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$80.78 $72.65▼ −10.06%▼ −8.83%$83.58 (+3.47%)
Aug 3, 2026
8w ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$80.78 $72.65▼ −10.06%▼ −8.83%$83.58 (+3.47%)
Jun 30, 2026
13w ago
425
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$94.54 $89.04▼ −5.82%▼ −4.79%$83.58 (−11.59%)
Jun 26, 2026
13w ago
425
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$88.57 $86.81▼ −1.99%▼ −1.71%$83.58 (−5.63%)
Jun 26, 2026
13w ago
425
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$88.57 $86.81▼ −1.99%▼ −1.71%$83.58 (−5.63%)
Jun 26, 2026
13w ago
425
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$88.57 $86.81▼ −1.99%▼ −1.71%$83.58 (−5.63%)
Jun 26, 2026
13w ago
425
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$88.57 $86.81▼ −1.99%▼ −1.71%$83.58 (−5.63%)
Showing 10 of 23

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