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6-K ·Filed Oct 2, 2026

NIO

NIO Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 5/10
Horizonweeks Processed24d 19h ago SEC0001104659-26-112996
Notable filing: 6-K
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

The sharp deceleration in delivery growth from 49.2% in 9M to 25.4% in Q3 and 7.7% in September suggests weakening demand momentum. Monitor upcoming Q3 2026 earnings for revenue and margin impact, and watch for any guidance revision or demand commentary.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonweeks
Latest settled — T+5d
NIO ▲ +6.23% at T+5d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -6.23% · α vs SPY -5.07% · entry $3.37 → $3.58
Next anchor: T+20d in 3d
Latest observation: T+15 -9.38% FF3 residual α
Entry = T+0 close
Oct 2, 2026
via day close
T+1d
+1.48%
call -1.48% · α -0.81%
$3.42
settled 22d ago
T+5d
+6.23%
call -6.23% · α -5.07%
$3.58
settled 18d ago
T+20d
Pending
in 3d
T+60d
Pending
in 2mo

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

NIO reported September 2026 deliveries of 37,408 vehicles (+7.7% YoY) and Q3 2026 deliveries of 109,178 vehicles (+25.4% YoY), with cumulative deliveries reaching 1,297,893. The Q3 growth rate decelerated from the 49.2% YoY growth seen in the first three quarters, and the September monthly growth was the weakest of the year, indicating a softening trend. The filing also highlights milestone achievements for the ES8 and ES9 models, but the deceleration in delivery growth is a concern.

Key Facts

  • September 2026 deliveries: 37,408 vehicles, +7.7% YoY
  • Q3 2026 deliveries: 109,178 vehicles, +25.4% YoY
  • First three quarters 2026 deliveries: 300,301 vehicles, +49.2% YoY
  • Cumulative deliveries: 1,297,893 as of September 30, 2026
  • September deliveries by brand: NIO 21,318, ONVO 8,763, FIREFLY 7,327
  • NIO All-New ES8 reached 150,000th delivery milestone on September 20, 2026
  • NIO ES9 reached 30,000th delivery milestone on September 23, 2026

Financial Impact

Delivery growth decelerating: Q3 2026 YoY growth of 25.4% is roughly half the 49.2% pace of the first three quarters, and September's 7.7% YoY growth is the slowest monthly rate implied by the data.

delivery volumerevenue growth

Risk Factors

  • Further deceleration in delivery growth could signal demand saturation or increased competition
  • Q3 2026 earnings may show margin pressure if delivery mix shifted to lower-priced brands (ONVO, FIREFLY)
  • Macroeconomic headwinds in China could further dampen EV demand

Investment Themes

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
6-K Filing (Primary)0001104659-26-112996
Document: tm2626774d1_6k.htm0001104659-26-112996
Document: 0001104659-26-112996-index-headers.html0001104659-26-112996
Document: 0001104659-26-112996-index.html0001104659-26-112996
Document: 0001104659-26-112996.txt0001104659-26-112996
19 reports for NIO
Performance horizon
30% Hit rate @ T+1 3 of 10 directional calls Went positive at some point 5 of 10 best @ T+1▲ +4.80%Jul 2, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for NIO — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Oct 21, 2026
5d ago
Institutional Cluster
BEARISH ★ 4/10
$3.31 $3.29▲ +0.60%▲ +0.08%$3.26 (+1.51%)
Oct 2, 2026
24d ago
6-K
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$3.37 $3.42▼ −1.48%▼ −0.81%$3.26 (+3.26%)
Oct 1, 2026
26d ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$3.40 $3.37▼ −0.88%▼ −1.62%$3.26 (−4.12%)
Sep 28, 2026
28d ago
6-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$3.59 $3.40▼ −5.29%▼ −5.11%$3.26 (−9.19%)
Sep 27, 2026
29d ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$3.59 $3.40▼ −5.29%▼ −5.11%$3.26 (−9.19%)
Sep 1, 2026
7w ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$4.06 $3.86▼ −4.93%▼ −5.37%$3.26 (−19.70%)
Sep 1, 2026
7w ago
6-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$4.06 $3.86▼ −4.93%▼ −5.37%$3.26 (−19.70%)
Sep 1, 2026
7w ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$4.06 $3.86▼ −4.93%▼ −5.37%$3.26 (−19.70%)
Sep 1, 2026
7w ago
Press Release
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$4.06 $3.86▼ −4.93%▼ −5.37%$3.26 (−19.70%)
Aug 20, 2026
9w ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$4.53 $4.63▲ +2.21%▲ +1.80%$3.26 (−28.04%)
Showing 10 of 19

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Report published Oct 2, 2026