The strong Q2 earnings provide a fundamental floor, but the CreditWatch negative from S&P and the ongoing uncertainty around the Votorantim/Boliden control discussions create overhang. Monitor for resolution of the Cajamarquilla fire investigation (expected August 2026) and any updates on the potential change of control, which could drive significant price movement. The $17.5M share premium reimbursement payable August 11 provides a near-term catalyst.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Nexa Resources reported strong Q2 2026 results with net income of $98M (vs $13M in Q2 2025) and Adjusted EBITDA of $286M (+78% YoY), driven by higher metal prices and a stronger by-products contribution. However, the quarter was marred by a fire at the Cajamarquilla smelter that temporarily suspended operations, and S&P placed the company's BBB- rating on CreditWatch negative following the announcement of potential control change discussions between Votorantim and Boliden. The combination of strong operational performance and significant corporate uncertainty creates a mixed picture for the stock.
Key Facts
- Net revenues of $908M in Q2 2026, up 28% YoY from $708M
- Net income of $98M vs $13M in Q2 2025 (+636% YoY)
- Adjusted EBITDA of $286M, up 78% YoY from $161M
- Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 8.8 p.p. to 31.5%
- Net leverage improved to 1.40x from 2.28x a year ago
- Cajamarquilla smelter fire in May 2026 temporarily suspended operations; affected volume expected to be recovered in 2H26
- S&P placed BBB- rating on CreditWatch negative on July 3, 2026, following potential change of control discussions
- Share premium reimbursement of $17.5M ($0.132136/share) approved, payable August 11, 2026
- Cerro Lindo silver streaming agreement reduced from 65% to 25% effective May 2026
- Cerro Pasco Integration Project capex increased from $138M to $180M
Financial Impact
Net income of $98M in Q2 2026 vs $13M in Q2 2025; Adjusted EBITDA of $286M vs $161M; Net leverage improved to 1.40x from 2.28x
Risk Factors
- S&P CreditWatch negative could lead to downgrade if control change materializes
- Cajamarquilla fire investigation and insurance loss adjustment pending (expected August 2026)
- Uncertainty around potential acquisition of controlling stake by Boliden
- BRL appreciation continues to pressure USD-reported costs
- Tax dispute with SUNAT remains unresolved; $161M in contingent liabilities
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 12 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 6-K Filing (NEXA) — Batch item 1 | 0001292814-26-004061 |
| Exhibit: ex99-1.htm | 0001292814-26-004059 |
| Document: nexa20260804_6k.htm | 0001292814-26-004057 |
| Document: 0001292814-26-004061-index-headers.html | 0001292814-26-004061 |
| Document: 0001292814-26-004061-index.html | 0001292814-26-004061 |
| Document: 0001292814-26-004061.txt | 0001292814-26-004061 |
| 6-K Filing (NEXA) — Batch item 7 | 0001292814-26-004059 |
| Document: nexapr2q26_6k.htm | 0001292814-26-004061 |
| Document: 0001292814-26-004059-index-headers.html | 0001292814-26-004061 |
| Document: 0001292814-26-004059-index.html | 0001292814-26-004061 |
| Document: 0001292814-26-004059.txt | 0001292814-26-004061 |
| 6-K Filing (NEXA) — Batch item 12 | 0001292814-26-004057 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 27, 2026 5w ago | 6-K | $13.90 $12.64 | ▼ −9.06% | ▼ −8.56% | $12.24 (−11.94%) |
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | 6-K | $14.05 $13.34 | ▼ −5.05% | ▼ −4.45% | $12.24 (−12.88%) |
Jun 25, 2026 14w ago | 6-K | $12.85 $13.22 | ▲ +2.88% | ▲ +1.62% | $12.24 (−4.75%) |
May 29, 2026 18w ago | 6-K | $16.19 $12.24 | ▼ −24.40% | ▼ −23.10% | $12.24 (−24.40%) |
Apr 24, 2026 23w ago | 6-K | $14.43 $14.19 | ▼ −1.66% | ▼ −5.69% | $12.24 (−15.18%) |
Mar 26, 2026 27w ago | 6-K | $10.04 $14.52 | ▲ +44.62% | ▲ +31.88% | $12.24 (+21.91%) |
Mar 26, 2026 27w ago | 6-K | $10.04 $14.52 | ▲ +44.62% | ▲ +31.88% | $12.24 (+21.91%) |
Mar 26, 2026 27w ago | 20-F | $10.04 $14.52 | ▲ +44.62% | ▲ +31.88% | $12.24 (+21.91%) |
US Market Status
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