The Q1 beat is noise — the 24-39% FY2026 EPS guidance cut is the dominant signal. Net Yield declining 3-5% and fuel costs spiking to $782/ton create a double headwind. Monitor Q2 2026 results for booking trends and whether the $125M SG&A savings can offset revenue pressure. Net leverage at 5.3x with $15B debt leaves limited balance sheet flexibility.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
NCLH reported Q1 2026 revenue of $2.33B (+10% YoY) and GAAP EPS of $0.23, beating consensus estimates of $0.14 by 61%. However, the company lowered full-year 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance to $1.45-$1.79 (from prior $2.38), citing Middle East disruptions, higher fuel costs, and softer European demand. The guidance cut overshadows the Q1 beat and signals deteriorating near-term fundamentals.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q1 2026 total revenue $2.33B, up 10% YoY from $2.13B
- GAAP net income $104.7M vs -$40.3M loss in Q1 2025
- GAAP diluted EPS $0.23 vs -$0.09 YoY
- Adjusted EBITDA $533M, up 18% YoY, exceeding guidance of ~$515M
- Full-year 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance lowered to $1.45-$1.79 from prior $2.38
- Full-year 2026 Net Yield expected to decline 3%-5% on constant currency basis
- Net Debt $15.0B, Net Leverage 5.3x as of March 31, 2026
- Company remains below optimal booking range due to execution missteps and geopolitical uncertainty
- Fuel price per metric ton (net of hedges) expected to rise to $782 in FY2026 from $651 in Q1 2026
Financial Impact
Full-year 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance cut by 24%-39% from prior $2.38 to $1.45-$1.79, implying ~$560M-$700M reduction in Adjusted Net Income vs prior outlook
Risk Factors
- Further deterioration in European travel demand due to Middle East conflict
- Fuel cost spike to $782/ton in FY2026 vs $651 in Q1 2026 could pressure margins
- Net leverage at 5.3x with $15B debt limits financial flexibility
- Company remains below optimal booking range with execution missteps unresolved
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001171843-26-002957 |
| Document: f8k_050426.htm | 0001171843-26-002957 |
| Document: 0001171843-26-002957-index-headers.html | 0001171843-26-002957 |
| Document: 0001171843-26-002957-index.html | 0001171843-26-002957 |
| Document: 0001171843-26-002957.txt | 0001171843-26-002957 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001171843-26-002957 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul 30, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $18.72 $16.65 | ▲ +11.06% | ▲ +15.02% | $15.14 (+19.12%) |
Jul 30, 2026 9w ago | Press Release | $18.72 $16.65 | ▲ +11.06% | ▲ +15.02% | $15.14 (+19.12%) |
Jun 16, 2026 15w ago | 8-K | $19.83 $19.61 | ▼ −1.11% | ▼ −2.43% | $15.14 (−23.65%) |
Jun 8, 2026 16w ago | Press Release | $18.55 $19.26 | ▲ +3.83% | ▲ +2.20% | $15.14 (−18.38%) |
May 26, 2026 18w ago | Insider Cluster | $18.16 $21.01 | ▲ +15.71% | ▲ +18.00% | $15.14 (−16.62%) |
May 21, 2026 19w ago | Insider Cluster | $16.29 $20.04 | ▲ +23.03% | ▲ +23.20% | $15.14 (−7.05%) |
May 19, 2026 19w ago | Insider Cluster | $16.03 $19.83 | ▲ +23.71% | ▲ +23.75% | $15.14 (−5.55%) |
May 7, 2026 21w ago | Insider Cluster | $17.23 $18.15 | ▲ +5.35% | ▲ +2.22% | $15.14 (−12.12%) |
May 4, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $17.19 $18.06 | ▼ −5.07% | ▲ +0.58% | $15.14 (+11.92%) |
May 4, 2026 21w ago | Press Release | $17.19 $18.06 | ▲ +5.07% | ▼ −0.58% | $15.14 (−11.92%) |
US Market Status
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