8-K ·Filed Jul 29, 2026

MSFT

MICROSOFT CORP
BULLISH
Impact 7/10
Horizondays Processed2mo ago SEC0001193125-26-323632
8-K Item 2.02: Earnings release
Actionable Insight ▲ Bullish

The earnings call will be key for FY2027 guidance — listen for Azure growth trajectory and capex plans. The stock is already up 7.54% pre-market, suggesting partial anticipation. If guidance signals continued investment spend and cloud deceleration, profit-taking could occur.

DirectionBullish
Confidencehigh
Horizondays
Latest settled — T+20d
MSFT ▲ +27.10% at T+20d
LONG call ✓ call won +27.10% · α vs SPY +22.08% · entry $390.54 → $496.37
Next anchor: T+60d in 19d
Latest observation: T+43 +26.79% FF3 residual α
Entry anchored
Jul 28, 07:29 PM ET
via exchange tick
T+1d
+15.51%
call +15.51% · α +13.83%
$451.10
settled 2mo ago
T+5d
+24.29%
call +24.29% · α +18.76%
$485.40
settled 8w ago
T+20d
+27.10%
call +27.10% · α +22.08%
$496.37
settled 5w ago
T+60d
—
call — · α —
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in 19d

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Microsoft reported Q4 FY2026 revenue of $90.0B (+18% YoY) and GAAP EPS of $4.81, beating consensus of $4.24 by 13.4%. Azure growth accelerated to 43% and Microsoft Cloud revenue reached $59.3B (+27%), driven by AI and Copilot adoption. No forward guidance was provided in the filing, but the strong beat across all key metrics underscores robust cloud and AI momentum.

Key Financial Metrics

EPS
$4.81
est $4.24 · +13.4%
Revenue
$90.0B
est $87.6B · +2.7% · +18.0% YoY
Rating
strong beat
Free Cash Flow
$19.6B
Gross Margin
67.2%

Key Facts

  • Revenue $90.0B, up 18% YoY, vs consensus $87.63B (beat by 2.7%)
  • GAAP diluted EPS $4.81, up 32% YoY, vs consensus $4.24 (beat by 13.4%)
  • Non-GAAP EPS (adj. for OpenAI) $4.74, up 23% YoY
  • Microsoft Cloud revenue $59.3B, up 27% YoY
  • Azure and other cloud services revenue growth accelerated to 43%
  • Commercial remaining performance obligation (RPO) $678B, up 84%
  • Microsoft 365 Copilot reached over 30 million paid seats
  • Operating income $40.6B, up 18% YoY; operating margin 45.1%
  • Free cash flow $19.6B in the quarter ($55.4B operating CF less $35.8B capex)
  • More Personal Computing segment declined 4% (Windows OEM -7%, Xbox -10%)

Financial Impact

EPS beat consensus by $0.57 (13.4%), revenue beat by $2.37B (2.7%). Azure growth acceleration and strong cloud metrics confirm AI monetization trajectory.

revenueepsazure growthcloud revenueoperating incomefree cash flow

Risk Factors

  • Massive capex ramp ($115.9B in FY2026, up 80% YoY) could pressure future margins if AI demand softens
  • PC and Xbox revenue declines signal legacy headwinds
  • No quantitative guidance provided; outlook on call may disappoint relative to elevated expectations
  • Anthropic investment gain ($3.2B) boosted EPS, potentially masking core earnings growth rate

Market Snapshot

Price
$422.99
Change
+7.5%
Volume
42
Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Services-Prepackaged Software
Analyst Consensus
93% bullish (68 analysts)

Investment Themes

Artificial IntelligenceCloud & SaaS

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001193125-26-323632
Document: msft-20260729.htm0001193125-26-323632
Document: 0001193125-26-323632-index-headers.html0001193125-26-323632
Document: 0001193125-26-323632-index.html0001193125-26-323632
Document: 0001193125-26-323632.txt0001193125-26-323632
8-K Data (Synthetic)0001193125-26-323632
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Performance horizon
83% Hit rate 5 of 6 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +19.40%Jul 20, 2026
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