The revenue miss and widening cash burn are concerning for a pre-commercial company. However, the post-quarter $183M equity raise extends runway into 2027+. Watch the 10-Q filing for per-share data and updated cash position. The C-130J contract and Condor introduction provide long-term optionality but no near-term revenue catalyst.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Merlin Labs reported Q1 2026 revenue of $1.0M (up from $0.9M YoY) and a GAAP net loss of $(90.4)M, driven by $(87.8)M in non-cash fair value changes on convertible notes settled in the March 2026 de-SPAC merger. Adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $(23.3)M from $(10.4)M. The company highlighted its first automated takeoffs, C-130J contract progress, and the introduction of Condor for large-aircraft autonomy, but remains pre-revenue on a commercial scale with no near-term profitability path.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q1 2026 revenue of $1.0M vs $0.9M YoY, well below the $3.0M consensus estimate (a 67% miss).
- GAAP net loss of $(90.4)M vs $(12.7)M YoY, largely due to $(87.8)M non-cash fair value change on convertible promissory notes.
- Adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $(23.3)M from $(10.4)M YoY, reflecting increased R&D and G&A spend.
- Cash, equivalents, and short-term investments were $122.8M at March 31, 2026, down from $59.3M at Dec 31, 2025 (post-merger cash infusion).
- Company closed a $183M equity financing on May 1, 2026, providing additional runway.
- No per-share data or balance sheet included in the release; final 10-Q expected later today.
- Business highlights: first automated takeoffs, C-130J IDIQ contract ($105M ceiling), and introduction of Condor for large-aircraft autonomy.
Financial Impact
Revenue miss of ~67% vs consensus ($1.0M actual vs $3.0M estimate); net loss of $(90.4)M including large non-cash charges; cash burn rate implied by Adj. EBITDA loss of $(23.3)M per quarter.
Risk Factors
- Revenue miss of 67% vs consensus signals limited near-term commercial traction.
- Adjusted EBITDA loss more than doubled YoY, indicating accelerating cash burn.
- Dependence on government contracts (USSOCOM) and civil certification timelines; delays could push revenue further out.
- No per-share data or balance sheet in this release; final 10-Q may reveal additional liabilities or dilution.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic) | press-3294807 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 27, 2026 today | 8-K | $0.8837 | awaiting T+20 | — | $1.08 (+21.65%) |
Oct 22, 2026 4d ago | Press Release | $0.8439 | awaiting T+20 | — | $1.08 (+27.38%) |
Oct 13, 2026 14d ago | SC 13G | $1.29 | awaiting T+20 | — | $1.08 (−16.67%) |
Oct 5, 2026 21d ago | Press Release | $1.56 | awaiting T+20 | — | $1.08 (−31.09%) |
Sep 18, 2026 5w ago | SC 13G/A | $1.86 $1.07 | ▼ −42.47% | ▼ −41.57% | $1.08 (−42.20%) |
May 14, 2026 23w ago | 8-K | $7.06 $6.81 | ▼ −3.54% | ▼ −2.68% | $1.08 (−84.77%) |
May 14, 2026 23w ago | Press Release | $7.06 $6.81 | ▲ +3.54% | ▲ +2.68% | $1.08 (+84.77%) |
May 14, 2026 23w ago | EFFECT | $7.06 $6.81 | ▲ +3.54% | ▲ +2.68% | $1.08 (+84.77%) |
May 6, 2026 24w ago | S-1 | $9.32 $7.27 | ▲ +22.00% | ▲ +24.78% | $1.08 (+88.47%) |
Apr 29, 2026 25w ago | 8-K | $8.62 $8.00 | ▲ +7.19% | ▲ +12.65% | $1.08 (+87.53%) |
US Market Status
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