This is a pre-revenue story stock — the revenue miss vs low consensus is immaterial. The key watch items are (1) cash runway: ~$183M post-financing funds operations for several quarters at the current burn rate; (2) Condor commercial traction and any definitive agreements; (3) civil certification milestones and C-130J contract awards. Monitor the 10-Q for per-share data and updated share count. The stock will trade on program execution and capital market access, not quarterly financials.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Merlin reported Q1 2026 revenue of $1.0M (up from $0.9M YoY) but GAAP net loss widened to -$90.4M from -$12.7M, driven largely by non-cash fair-value changes on convertible notes settled in the March SPAC merger. Adjusted EBITDA loss was -$23.3M vs -$10.4M a year ago. The company introduced Condor, its first product family for large multi-crew aircraft, and highlighted progress on its USSOCOM C-130J contract and civil certification. Post-quarter, it closed an equity financing boosting cash to ~$183M with no debt. As a pre-revenue-stage public company, the core story remains program execution and cash runway, not current financials.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q1 2026 revenue $1.0M vs $0.9M YoY (+15.4%)
- GAAP net loss -$90.4M vs -$12.7M YoY, driven by -$87.8M change in fair value of convertible promissory notes and -$2.5M change in fair value of long-term debt (both non-cash, merger-related)
- Adjusted EBITDA loss -$23.3M vs -$10.4M YoY, reflecting higher R&D ($14.1M vs $6.7M) and G&A ($14.1M vs $4.5M) as a public company
- Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments $122.8M at March 31, 2026; post-quarter equity financing on May 1 brought pro-forma cash to ~$183M with no debt
- Introduced Condor product family for large multi-crew aircraft; signed non-binding MOU with World Star Aviation for commercial development
- C-130J autonomy contract with USSOCOM has $105M ceiling value; civil certification progressing with NZ CAA (SOI 1 and SOI 2 completed)
- No EPS or per-share data provided in this release (finalizing post-merger capital structure accounting)
- First quarterly report as a public company following March 16 SPAC merger close
Financial Impact
Revenue $1.0M vs consensus $3.0M (miss); GAAP net loss -$90.4M; Adjusted EBITDA -$23.3M; cash position $122.8M at quarter end, ~$183M post-financing
Risk Factors
- Cash burn accelerating: Adjusted EBITDA loss -$23.3M in Q1 alone, annualizing to ~$93M — ~$183M cash provides ~2 years of runway at current pace
- No clear path to near-term revenue: $1.0M quarterly revenue is negligible; commercialization of Condor is preliminary and non-binding
- Dilution risk: post-SPAC capital structure and May equity financing likely added significant shares; no per-share data yet
- Dependence on government contracts (USSOCOM C-130J) and civil certification timelines — both subject to budget and regulatory risk
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001213900-26-056230 |
| Document: ea0290556-8k_merlin.htm | 0001213900-26-056230 |
| Document: 0001213900-26-056230-index-headers.html | 0001213900-26-056230 |
| Document: 0001213900-26-056230-index.html | 0001213900-26-056230 |
| Document: 0001213900-26-056230.txt | 0001213900-26-056230 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001213900-26-056230 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 22, 2026 4d ago | Press Release | $0.8439 | awaiting T+20 | — | $0.8585 (+1.73%) |
Oct 13, 2026 13d ago | SC 13G | $1.29 | awaiting T+20 | — | $0.8585 (−33.45%) |
Oct 5, 2026 21d ago | Press Release | $1.56 | awaiting T+20 | — | $0.8585 (−44.97%) |
Sep 18, 2026 5w ago | SC 13G/A | $1.86 $1.07 | ▼ −42.47% | ▼ −41.57% | $0.8585 (−53.84%) |
May 14, 2026 23w ago | 8-K | $7.06 $6.81 | ▼ −3.54% | ▼ −2.68% | $0.8585 (−87.84%) |
May 14, 2026 23w ago | Press Release | $7.06 $6.81 | ▲ +3.54% | ▲ +2.68% | $0.8585 (+87.84%) |
May 14, 2026 23w ago | EFFECT | $7.06 $6.81 | ▲ +3.54% | ▲ +2.68% | $0.8585 (+87.84%) |
May 6, 2026 24w ago | S-1 | $9.32 $7.27 | ▲ +22.00% | ▲ +24.78% | $0.8585 (+90.79%) |
Apr 29, 2026 25w ago | 8-K | $8.62 $8.00 | ▲ +7.19% | ▲ +12.65% | $0.8585 (+90.04%) |
Apr 29, 2026 25w ago | Press Release | $8.62 $8.00 | ▼ −7.19% | ▼ −12.65% | $0.8585 (−90.04%) |
US Market Status
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