The EPS beat is significant but driven by lower share count and non-GAAP adjustments, while premium revenue missed consensus by ~12% and membership continues to shrink. The reaffirmed guidance implies a weak Q4 (Florida contract startup costs and MAPD exit losses). Watch for Q4 2026 results and 2027 margin commentary — the 'beginning of the turn in Medicaid margins' thesis is unproven and hinges on rate adequacy.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Molina Healthcare reported Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.89, beating consensus of $0.63 by 41.3%, on premium revenue of $10.46B (vs $11.85B consensus). The company reaffirmed full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of at least $5.25 and premium revenue of ~$42B. The consolidated MCR rose to 92.9% from 92.6% a year ago, with GAAP net income down 52% YoY to $38M. Management cited a plateauing medical cost trend and favorable 2027 rate updates as early signs of a turn in Medicaid margins.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 adjusted EPS $0.89 vs consensus $0.63 (beat by 41.3%)
- Premium revenue $10.46B, down 4% YoY, below consensus $11.85B
- Consolidated MCR 92.9% vs 92.6% a year ago; Medicaid MCR 93.0%
- Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance reaffirmed at ≥$5.25; premium revenue ~$42B unchanged
- GAAP net income $38M, down 52% YoY; adjusted net income $46M, down 53% YoY
- Membership declined to 4.86M from 5.49M at Dec 2025, driven by Medicaid and Marketplace attrition
- Operating cash flow for 9M 2026 was $629M vs -$237M in prior year period
- Parent company cash and investments $608M vs $223M at Dec 2025
- Guidance includes $1.50/share loss from new Florida Medicaid contract in Q4 and $1.00/share loss from exiting MAPD product
Financial Impact
EPS beat of $0.26 (41.3%) vs consensus on a revenue miss of ~$1.4B (11.8%) — a mixed signal where the beat is driven by lower share count and non-operating items, while the core business shows revenue contraction and margin compression
Risk Factors
- Premium revenue declining 4% YoY with membership attrition across Medicaid and Marketplace
- Consolidated MCR rising 30bps YoY to 92.9%, indicating medical cost pressure
- Q4 2026 expected to include $1.50/share loss from Florida Medicaid contract implementation and $1.00/share loss from MAPD exit
- Guidance unchanged despite the large EPS beat — suggests Q4 weakness is expected to offset Q3 outperformance
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001179929-26-000042 |
| Document: moh-20261021.htm | 0001179929-26-000042 |
| Document: 0001179929-26-000042-index-headers.html | 0001179929-26-000042 |
| Document: 0001179929-26-000042-index.html | 0001179929-26-000042 |
| Document: 0001179929-26-000042.txt | 0001179929-26-000042 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001179929-26-000042 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 21, 2026 5d ago | 8-K | $216.64 | awaiting T+60 | — | $201.95 (−6.78%) |
Jul 29, 2026 12w ago | Institutional Cluster | $194.70 $209.15 | ▲ +7.42% | ▲ +4.96% | $201.95 (+3.72%) |
Jun 11, 2026 19w ago | Institutional Cluster | $193.20 $200.61 | ▲ +3.84% | ▼ −0.56% | $201.95 (+4.53%) |
Jun 10, 2026 19w ago | 8-K | $193.20 $200.61 | ▲ +3.84% | ▼ −0.56% | $201.95 (+4.53%) |
May 15, 2026 23w ago | Insider Cluster | $184.65 $204.51 | ▲ +10.76% | ▲ +6.17% | $201.95 (+9.37%) |
May 11, 2026 24w ago | 8-K | $184.46 $194.84 | ▲ +5.63% | ▲ +1.50% | $201.95 (+9.48%) |
May 8, 2026 24w ago | 8-K | $185.26 $194.77 | ▲ +5.13% | ▲ +2.42% | $201.95 (+9.01%) |
Apr 22, 2026 26w ago | 8-K | $172.71 $225.37 | ▼ −30.49% | ▼ −25.57% | $201.95 (−16.93%) |
Mar 23, 2026 31w ago | DEFA14A | $141.34 $195.53 | ▲ +38.34% | ▲ +24.90% | $201.95 (+42.88%) |
Feb 28, 2026 34w ago | Institutional Cluster | $152.21 $176.20 | ▲ +15.76% | ▲ +6.43% | $201.95 (+32.68%) |
US Market Status
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