The massive EPS miss and Q3 price guidance collapse make this a clear sell signal for MEOH. Monitor Q3 production rates and methanol spot prices for confirmation of the bearish trajectory; the Titan idling removes ~5% of global supply, which could provide a floor, but the sequential price decline is severe.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Methanex reported Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $577M, a record driven by higher methanol pricing from Middle East supply disruptions, but GAAP EPS of $0.30 missed consensus of $4.01 by 92.5% due to a $115M non-cash asset impairment from idling the Titan plant. The company guided Q3 average realized price down to $460-$485/tonne from Q2's $529/tonne, signaling a sharp sequential decline in profitability. The massive EPS miss and bearish guidance outweigh the record EBITDA, making this a bearish report for the common stock.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q2 2026 GAAP EPS of $0.30 missed consensus of $4.01 by 92.5%
- Adjusted EBITDA of $577M was a record, up from $220M in Q1 2026
- Record average realized price of $529/tonne in Q2, but Q3 guidance implies $460-$485/tonne
- Indefinitely idled Titan plant in Trinidad, recording a $115M non-cash impairment charge
- Repaid remaining $290M of Term Loan A; ended quarter with $383M cash and $400M undrawn revolver
- Q2 production of 2,213K tonnes was down from 2,391K in Q1 due to outages and seasonal constraints
- 2026 full-year production guidance of ~9.0M tonnes methanol and 0.3M tonnes ammonia
Financial Impact
GAAP EPS of $0.30 vs $4.01 consensus; Q3 ARP guidance $460-$485/tonne vs Q2 $529/tonne implies ~$200M+ sequential EBITDA decline
Risk Factors
- Methanol prices could rebound if Middle East supply disruptions worsen, reversing the bearish thesis
- The Titan idling reduces global supply, potentially supporting prices in H2 2026
- Record Q2 EBITDA shows the earnings power at high prices; a quick price recovery could make this a buying opportunity
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic) | press-3334810 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 1, 2026 4w ago | Press Release | $60.57 $58.68 | ▲ +3.12% | ▲ +2.79% | $58.74 (+3.03%) |
Jul 28, 2026 9w ago | Press Release | $54.64 $56.93 | ▼ −4.19% | ▲ +0.83% | $58.74 (−7.49%) |
Jun 29, 2026 13w ago | 6-K | $46.15 $54.18 | ▼ −17.40% | ▼ −18.43% | $58.74 (−27.27%) |
May 1, 2026 22w ago | 6-K | $64.25 $61.16 | ▼ −4.81% | ▼ −10.09% | $58.74 (−8.58%) |
Apr 30, 2026 22w ago | Press Release | $64.25 $61.16 | ▲ +4.81% | ▲ +10.08% | $58.74 (+8.58%) |
Apr 29, 2026 22w ago | Press Release | $65.54 $59.10 | ▼ −9.83% | ▼ −15.05% | $58.74 (−10.38%) |
Apr 29, 2026 22w ago | 6-K | $65.54 $59.83 | ▼ −8.71% | ▼ −13.68% | $58.74 (−10.38%) |
Apr 20, 2026 23w ago | 144 | $58.37 $62.09 | ▲ +6.37% | ▲ +1.46% | $58.74 (+0.63%) |
Mar 5, 2026 30w ago | Press Release | $49.65 $61.57 | ▼ −24.01% | ▼ −26.06% | $58.74 (−18.30%) |
US Market Status
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