The sharp upward price guidance ($500-$525/tonne for Apr-May, up from $351 in Q1) suggests a material earnings inflection in Q2. Traders should monitor spot methanol prices and the Middle East conflict's impact on supply chains. The Q2 release will be critical to confirm the guidance and assess sustainability of higher prices. Methanex's deleveraging progress and cash position provide downside cushion.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Methanex reported Q1 2026 revenue of $974M (+8.7% YoY) but a net loss of $14M versus net income of $111M a year ago, driven by mark-to-market share-based compensation expense. Adjusted EBITDA fell 11% to $220M and Adjusted net income dropped 74% to $23M, reflecting lower realized methanol prices ($351/tonne vs $404/tonne). However, management guided for a sharp price recovery to ~$500-525/tonne in April-May and expects significantly higher Q2 Adjusted EBITDA, supported by Middle East supply disruptions tightening the market. The mixed results combine weak Q1 earnings with a strong near-term outlook.
Key Facts
- Revenue $974M in Q1 2026 vs $896M in Q1 2025 (+8.7%)
- Net loss attributable to Methanex shareholders of $14M vs net income of $111M in Q1 2025
- Adjusted EBITDA $220M vs $248M in Q1 2025 (-11.3%)
- Adjusted net income $23M vs $88M in Q1 2025 (-73.9%)
- Average realized methanol price $351/tonne vs $404/tonne in Q1 2025 (-13.1%)
- Methanol production 2,391,000 tonnes in Q1 2026 (up from 1,619,000 tonnes due to acquisition)
- Expects average realized price of $500-$525/tonne for April and May 2026
- Expects significantly higher Adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026
- Repaid $60 million of Term Loan A, ended quarter with $379 million cash
- Maintains 2026 production guidance of 9.0 million tonnes methanol (Methanex interest)
Financial Impact
Q1 Adjusted EBITDA declined $28M YoY (-11.3%) but Q2 guidance implies a significant sequential and YoY improvement driven by higher methanol prices
Risk Factors
- Middle East conflict escalation could disrupt supply but also poses risk to global demand and logistics
- Natural gas price volatility, especially in North America, could compress margins
- Trinidad gas supply contract expires September 2026; renewal uncertainty
- Potential production curtailments in Egypt and New Zealand due to gas availability
- Execution risk in integrating acquired Beaumont and Natgasoline assets
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 4 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 6-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-028456 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-028456-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-028456 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-028456-index.html | 0001628280-26-028456 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-028456.txt | 0001628280-26-028456 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 1, 2026 4w ago | Press Release | $60.57 $58.68 | ▲ +3.12% | ▲ +2.79% | $58.74 (+3.03%) |
Jul 28, 2026 9w ago | Press Release | $54.64 $56.93 | ▼ −4.19% | ▲ +0.83% | $58.74 (−7.49%) |
Jun 29, 2026 13w ago | 6-K | $46.15 $54.18 | ▼ −17.40% | ▼ −18.43% | $58.74 (−27.27%) |
May 1, 2026 22w ago | 6-K | $64.25 $61.16 | ▼ −4.81% | ▼ −10.09% | $58.74 (−8.58%) |
Apr 30, 2026 22w ago | Press Release | $64.25 $61.16 | ▲ +4.81% | ▲ +10.08% | $58.74 (+8.58%) |
Apr 29, 2026 22w ago | Press Release | $65.54 $59.10 | ▼ −9.83% | ▼ −15.05% | $58.74 (−10.38%) |
Apr 29, 2026 22w ago | 6-K | $65.54 $59.83 | ▼ −8.71% | ▼ −13.68% | $58.74 (−10.38%) |
Apr 20, 2026 23w ago | 144 | $58.37 $62.09 | ▲ +6.37% | ▲ +1.46% | $58.74 (+0.63%) |
Mar 5, 2026 30w ago | Press Release | $49.65 $61.57 | ▼ −24.01% | ▼ −26.06% | $58.74 (−18.30%) |
US Market Status
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