The sharp deceleration in revenue growth and reaffirmed (not raised) guidance removes near-term catalysts. Monitor Q4 MIS issuance volumes and the macro rate outlook — Moody's is highly sensitive to debt capital markets activity.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Moody's Q3 2026 revenue grew only 1% YoY to $2.02B, a sharp deceleration from Q2's 15% growth, as MIS revenue declined 1% on lower leveraged finance issuance. EPS of $4.24 beat the $3.57 consensus by 18.8%, but the beat was driven by a $115M divestiture gain and lower tax rate, not operational strength. Full-year guidance was reaffirmed with no changes, removing upside surprise potential.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 revenue $2.023B, +1% YoY (vs Q2 +15% YoY)
- MIS revenue declined 1% YoY to $1.087B, with transactional revenue down 5%
- Diluted EPS $4.24 vs consensus $3.57 (beat by 18.8%), but included $115M divestiture gain
- Adjusted diluted EPS $4.14, +6% YoY, vs consensus $4.25 (missed by 2.6%)
- Full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed with no changes across all metrics
- Year-to-date share repurchases $2.6B, up from $1.17B in prior year period
- MA ARR grew 8% YoY to $3.688B, led by Decision Solutions +10%
Financial Impact
Revenue growth decelerated from 15% to 1% YoY; adjusted EPS missed consensus by 2.6%
Risk Factors
- Further deceleration in MIS transactional revenue if leveraged finance issuance remains weak
- Higher-for-longer interest rate environment suppressing debt issuance volumes
- Global speculative grade default rate assumption raised to 3.8% from 3% indicates credit deterioration
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-066594 |
| Document: mco-20261021.htm | 0001628280-26-066594 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-066594-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-066594 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-066594-index.html | 0001628280-26-066594 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-066594.txt | 0001628280-26-066594 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001628280-26-066594 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 21, 2026 6d ago | 8-K | $481.05 | awaiting T+20 | — | $474.00 (+1.47%) |
Oct 20, 2026 7d ago | Institutional Cluster | $481.05 | awaiting T+20 | — | $474.00 (+1.47%) |
Oct 15, 2026 12d ago | 8-K/A | $485.07 | awaiting T+20 | — | $474.00 (−2.28%) |
Aug 12, 2026 10w ago | 8-K | $488.42 $474.95 | ▼ −2.76% | ▼ −1.01% | $474.00 (−2.95%) |
Jul 22, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $489.70 $497.03 | ▲ +1.50% | ▼ −1.40% | $474.00 (−3.21%) |
Jul 17, 2026 14w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $510.86 $484.96 | ▼ −5.07% | ▼ −9.52% | $474.00 (−7.22%) |
Jul 2, 2026 16w ago | Insider Cluster | $490.51 $482.26 | ▼ −1.68% | ▼ −1.27% | $474.00 (−3.37%) |
Jun 2, 2026 20w ago | Insider Cluster | $448.39 $490.51 | ▲ +9.39% | ▲ +10.39% | $474.00 (+5.71%) |
Apr 22, 2026 26w ago | 8-K | $466.72 $434.49 | ▲ +6.91% | ▲ +10.07% | $474.00 (−1.56%) |
Apr 15, 2026 27w ago | 8-K | $446.81 $451.75 | ▲ +1.11% | ▼ −4.94% | $474.00 (+6.09%) |
US Market Status
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