Jefferies' initiation at the highest PT adds a bullish catalyst, but the high short interest and insider selling suggest caution. Traders should watch for a short squeeze if earnings on July 21 beat expectations, but avoid chasing into the print given the contrarian insider signal.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Jefferies initiated coverage on MCO with a Buy rating and a $610 price target, the highest on the Street. The call is contrarian to the consensus, where 30% of analysts rate Hold and the mean target is $542.65. Jefferies' 53% accuracy on 2,281 calls and 3.9% average return place it near the middle of the pack covering MCO. The $610 target implies 17.5% upside from the current $519.02. EPS revisions have been positive over the past 30 days, with 3 upward revisions and 0 downward for the current and next fiscal years. Insider selling by the CEO and another executive in June/July for ~$947K total is a mild bearish signal, but not a cluster. Short interest is elevated at 70% of float, suggesting potential squeeze risk. The bottom line: Jefferies' high PT and positive EPS momentum support the bullish view, but the contrarian call from a mid-accuracy firm and insider selling temper conviction.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 30 analysts, 21 (70%) rate Buy/Strong Buy, 9 (30%) rate Hold, and 0 rate Sell. The consensus is heavily bullish, but Jefferies' Buy is in line with the majority view.
Mean target $542.65, median $542, high $610 (Jefferies), low $490. Current price $519.02 implies 4.6% upside to the mean. Jefferies' $610 target is 12.4% above the mean and is the most bullish on the Street.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Jefferies | initiate | Buy | $610.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $575.00 |
| 2026-07-07 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Equal-Weight | $496.00 |
| 2026-07-07 | BMO Capital | maintain | Market Perform | $515.00 |
| 2026-04-28 | Mizuho | maintain | Neutral | $521.00 |
| 2026-04-23 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $590.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $560.00 |
| 2026-04-07 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Equal-Weight | $489.00 |
| 2026-02-24 | Mizuho | maintain | Neutral | $524.00 |
| 2026-02-23 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $550.00 |
In the past 30 days, there has been 1 upgrade (Jefferies' initiation) and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are positive: 3 upward revisions vs 0 downward for the current quarter and fiscal year. Estimates are being revised higher.
Firm Track Record — Jefferies
Jefferies accuracy: 53% on 2281 calls | avg return: 3.9%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 14 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raymond James | 100% | 2/2 | 6.9% | top tier |
| RBC Capital | 100% | 4/4 | 6.3% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 100% | 2/2 | 6.2% | top tier |
| Stifel | 83% | 5/6 | 7.7% | top tier |
| Barclays | 80% | 4/5 | 8.2% | top tier |
| Mizuho | 75% | 3/4 | 6.4% | top tier |
| Baird | 75% | 3/4 | 9.8% | top tier |
| Oppenheimer | 70% | 7/10 | 4.2% | top tier |
| UBS | 60% | 3/5 | 2.7% | above average |
| JP Morgan | 60% | 3/5 | 6.4% | above average |
Jefferies has a 53% accuracy rate on 2,281 calls with a 3.9% average return, placing it in the middle tier. Top-performing firms on MCO include Raymond James (100% on 2 calls, +6.9% avg return) and RBC Capital (100% on 4 calls, +6.3%). Worst: Morgan Stanley (33% on 6 calls, -2.1% avg return). Jefferies' accuracy is below the top tier but above the worst.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 21, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $4.23 | $3.81 — $4.37 | $2.1B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1q | $4.37 | $4.12 — $4.53 | $2.1B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $16.76 | $16.37 — $17.02 | $8.2B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| +1y | $18.64 | $17.66 — $19.94 | $8.9B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades show selling by CEO Fauber ($804K total in June/July) and another executive ($143K), a mild bearish signal. Institutional activity is mixed: Assenagon doubled its position (+156.5%), but AKRE Capital trimmed (-28.2%) and Norges Bank/COATUE exited. Short interest is 70% of float, very high, indicating bearish positioning that could fuel a squeeze. The analyst bullish call diverges from insider selling but converges with positive EPS revisions and institutional buying by some funds.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 12, 2026 7w ago | 8-K | $488.42 $474.95 | ▼ −2.76% | ▼ −1.01% | $441.36 (−9.64%) |
Jul 22, 2026 10w ago | 8-K | $489.70 $497.03 | ▲ +1.50% | ▼ −1.40% | $441.36 (−9.87%) |
Jul 17, 2026 11w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $510.86 $484.96 | ▼ −5.07% | ▼ −9.52% | $441.36 (−13.60%) |
Jul 2, 2026 13w ago | Insider Cluster | $490.51 $482.26 | ▼ −1.68% | ▼ −1.27% | $441.36 (−10.02%) |
Jun 2, 2026 17w ago | Insider Cluster | $448.39 $490.51 | ▲ +9.39% | ▲ +10.39% | $441.36 (−1.57%) |
Apr 22, 2026 23w ago | 8-K | $466.72 $434.49 | ▲ +6.91% | ▲ +10.07% | $441.36 (+5.43%) |
Apr 15, 2026 24w ago | 8-K | $446.81 $451.75 | ▲ +1.11% | ▼ −4.94% | $441.36 (−1.22%) |
Apr 1, 2026 26w ago | Insider Cluster | $438.78 $460.11 | ▲ +4.86% | ▼ −4.86% | $441.36 (+0.59%) |
Mar 3, 2026 30w ago | Insider Cluster | $464.30 $436.25 | ▲ +6.04% | ▲ +1.64% | $441.36 (+4.94%) |
US Market Status
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