The strong revenue beat and first-ever guidance signal accelerating momentum in data center cooling and post-IPO financial flexibility. However, GAAP net income decline and organic residential weakness warrant monitoring. Watch for Q2 organic growth trajectory and margin sustainability at the conference call at 8:30 AM ET today.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Madison Air reported Q1 2026 net sales of $923.7M (+33.8% YoY, +12.5% pro forma), beating the $849.9M consensus. GAAP net income fell 6.9% to $43.0M, but adjusted net income rose 32.1% to $92.5M. The company issued FY2026 guidance of $3.75B-$3.85B in net sales and $1.02B-$1.065B in Adjusted EBITDA, its first public outlook. The strong top-line beat, robust backlog growth (+115.5%), and post-IPO deleveraging (pro forma net leverage 3.0x) are positive, but GAAP EPS declined 8.6% and organic residential sales fell 1.9%, tempering the overall read.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Net sales $923.7M, up 33.8% YoY (12.5% pro forma), vs consensus $849.9M — a beat of ~8.7%
- GAAP net income $43.0M, down 6.9% YoY; GAAP EPS from continuing ops $33,617 vs $36,762, down 8.6%
- Adjusted net income $92.5M, up 32.1% YoY; Adjusted EPS $83,088 vs $60,532, up 37.3%
- Adjusted EBITDA $233.4M, up 38.7% YoY; margin expanded 89 bps to 25.3%
- Backlog up 115.5% YoY; orders up 29.1% on a combined basis
- Free cash flow $50.4M, flat YoY; FCF conversion 117.2%
- FY2026 guidance: net sales $3.75B-$3.85B; Adjusted EBITDA $1.02B-$1.065B
- Completed IPO on April 17, 2026: 95.1M Class A shares at $27.00; net proceeds of $2.58B used to repay $2.66B in debt
- Pro forma net leverage reduced to 3.0x from 5.9x at year-end 2025
- Commercial segment organic sales grew 17.2%, driven by data center cooling; Residential organic sales declined 1.9%
Financial Impact
Revenue beat of ~$73.8M vs consensus; Adjusted EBITDA up 38.7% YoY; debt reduction of $2.66B from IPO proceeds
Risk Factors
- GAAP net income declined 6.9% YoY due to higher interest and amortization from the AprilAire acquisition
- Residential organic sales declined 1.9%, signaling softness in professional distribution channels
- Post-IPO share count increased significantly (95.1M new shares), creating dilution for GAAP EPS comparisons
- FY2026 guidance is initial and may be conservative; execution risk on integration and organic growth
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-033860 |
| Document: mair-20260512.htm | 0001628280-26-033860 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-033860-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-033860 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-033860-index.html | 0001628280-26-033860 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-033860.txt | 0001628280-26-033860 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001628280-26-033860 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 22, 2026 5d ago | Press Release | $23.08 $22.76 | ▼ −1.39% | ▼ −0.86% | $23.20 (+0.52%) |
Oct 12, 2026 15d ago | Institutional Cluster | $23.29 $24.08 | ▲ +3.39% | ▲ +3.40% | $23.20 (−0.39%) |
Aug 27, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $26.33 $26.40 | ▲ +0.27% | ▲ +0.56% | $23.20 (−11.89%) |
Aug 25, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $27.99 $28.51 | ▲ +1.86% | ▲ +1.84% | $23.20 (−17.11%) |
Aug 17, 2026 10w ago | 8-K | $29.57 $27.44 | ▼ −7.20% | ▼ −6.53% | $23.20 (−21.54%) |
Jul 30, 2026 12w ago | 8-K | $29.14 $29.06 | ▼ −0.27% | ▼ −0.98% | $23.20 (−20.38%) |
Jun 18, 2026 18w ago | 3 | $38.13 $38.56 | ▲ +1.13% | ▲ +1.44% | $23.20 (−39.16%) |
Jun 16, 2026 18w ago | 8-K | $38.15 $37.44 | ▼ −1.86% | ▼ −0.61% | $23.20 (−39.19%) |
Jun 5, 2026 20w ago | 8-K | $40.14 $39.59 | ▼ −1.37% | ▼ −1.60% | $23.20 (−42.20%) |
May 29, 2026 21w ago | Press Release | $43.47 $43.86 | ▲ +0.90% | ▲ +0.62% | $23.20 (−46.63%) |
US Market Status
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