The $147.6M sale by Advent International, a 10% owner, is a major de-risking event that likely overhangs the stock. Monitor for additional selling by remaining large holders and watch for any 8-K or press release that might explain the catalyst for this sale. The historical calibration suggests bearish calls on LUNR have been accurate (prior short call at score=5 returned +35% T+20), supporting a negative near-term outlook.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Two insiders at Intuitive Machines sold a combined $148.2M in stock over two days, with the bulk ($147.6M) coming from 10% owner Advent International selling 11.5M shares at $12.84. Director Kamal Ghaffarian also sold $624K in open-market shares after exercising options. The $147.6M sale represents 5.5% of the company's $2.7B market cap, a highly material cluster that signals a major reduction in a large holder's position. Historical calibration shows the model's prior bullish/neutral calls on LUNR have underperformed (avg T+20 -4.2%, 40% win rate), and the score-8 cell has only a 20% observed probability of an up-move at T+20, supporting a bearish read on this selling cluster.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- 10% owner Advent International sold 11.5M shares for $147.6M on July 28, 2026 at $12.84/share.
- Director Kamal Ghaffarian sold 47,303 shares for $624K on July 27, 2026 at $13.20/share after exercising options.
- Total cluster value of $148.2M represents 5.5% of LUNR's $2.7B market cap.
- The $147.6M Advent sale alone is 5.47% of market cap, far exceeding the 2% threshold for highly material insider sales.
- No open-market purchases were made by any insider during the cluster window.
Financial Impact
Two insiders sold $148.2M in stock, representing 5.5% of LUNR's $2.7B market cap.
Risk Factors
- Advent International may continue selling remaining shares, creating further downward pressure.
- The cluster may signal undisclosed negative corporate developments (e.g., contract loss, earnings miss, or liquidity need).
- Prior bullish and neutral calls on LUNR have underperformed significantly (avg T+20 -4.2%), suggesting the stock has been overvalued.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 SEC document filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | cluster-LUNR-1785380482668 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 1, 2026 4w ago | Press Release | $14.72 $14.79 | ▲ +0.44% | ▼ −0.74% | $14.71 (−0.07%) |
Aug 13, 2026 7w ago | 8-K | $17.56 $14.35 | ▼ −18.28% | ▼ −16.53% | $14.71 (−16.23%) |
Aug 13, 2026 7w ago | Press Release | $17.56 $14.35 | ▼ −18.28% | ▼ −16.53% | $14.71 (−16.23%) |
Aug 3, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $13.96 $14.72 | ▲ +5.44% | ▲ +6.68% | $14.71 (+5.37%) |
Jul 30, 2026 9w ago | Insider Cluster | $12.25 $16.18 | ▼ −32.08% | ▼ −28.12% | $14.71 (−20.08%) |
Jun 17, 2026 15w ago | Insider Cluster | $22.85 $13.44 | ▼ −41.18% | ▼ −41.71% | $14.71 (−35.62%) |
Jun 8, 2026 16w ago | Insider Cluster | $27.47 $17.85 | ▲ +35.02% | ▲ +36.47% | $14.71 (+46.45%) |
Jun 3, 2026 17w ago | 8-K | $33.83 $19.58 | ▼ −42.12% | ▼ −41.12% | $14.71 (−56.52%) |
May 14, 2026 20w ago | 8-K | $36.52 $26.62 | ▼ −27.11% | ▼ −26.25% | $14.71 (−59.72%) |
May 14, 2026 20w ago | Press Release | $36.52 $26.62 | ▼ −27.11% | ▼ −26.25% | $14.71 (−59.72%) |
US Market Status
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