The significant downward revision in AFFO per share guidance for 2026 suggests persistent margin pressure from oversupply and weak demand in the cold storage sector. Traders should monitor same-store occupancy trends and labor/power cost inflation as key indicators of future performance. The stock may face continued pressure until there is clear evidence of supply-demand rebalancing.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Lineage reported flat full-year 2025 revenue of $5.355 billion but saw a 2.3% decline in Adjusted EBITDA to $1.298 billion and a 70 bps margin contraction to 24.2%. AFFO grew 22.7% to $865 million, driven by cost management and new business wins. For 2026, the company guided for Adjusted EBITDA of $1.25–1.30 billion and AFFO per share of $2.75–3.00, reflecting expectations of continued industry headwinds and a focus on cost control.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Full-year 2025 revenue was flat at $5.355 billion, down 0.2% in Q4 to $1.336 billion
- Adjusted EBITDA declined 2.3% YoY to $1.298 billion with margin down 70 bps to 24.2%
- AFFO increased 22.7% to $865 million, though AFFO per share grew only 2.4% to $3.37
- Same-store NOI fell 5.8% YoY, with physical occupancy down 260 bps to 75.1%
- 2026 guidance projects Adjusted EBITDA of $1.25–1.30 billion and AFFO per share of $2.75–3.00, both below 2025 results
- GAAP net loss was $113 million in 2025, compared to a $751 million loss in 2024
Financial Impact
Adjusted EBITDA down $31 million YoY; 2026 AFFO per share guidance midpoint ($2.875) is 14.7% below 2025 actual ($3.37)
Segment Breakdown
| Segment | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Global Warehousing | $4.0K | +1.6% |
| Global Integrated Solutions | $1.4K | -3.3% |
Risk Factors
- Continued decline in same-store NOI and occupancy indicates weak pricing power
- 2026 guidance implies further margin compression despite cost control efforts
- High leverage (6.0x net debt/EBITDA) increases vulnerability to interest rate or demand shocks
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 8 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (LINE) — Batch item 1 | 0001868159-26-000010 |
| Document: final-lineageinc4q25earn.htm | 0001868159-26-000010 |
| Document: line-20260225.htm | 0001868159-26-000010 |
| Document: 0001868159-26-000010-index-headers.html | 0001868159-26-000010 |
| Document: 0001868159-26-000010-index.html | 0001868159-26-000010 |
| Document: 0001868159-26-000010.txt | 0001868159-26-000010 |
| 8-K Filing (LINE) — Batch item 7 | 0001868159-26-000010 |
| CONTEXT: Previous Earnings (2026-02-25) | 0001868159-26-000010 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 22, 2026 4d ago | 8-K | $35.36 | awaiting T+60 | — | $35.70 (+0.96%) |
Sep 15, 2026 5w ago | Press Release | $37.94 | awaiting T+60 | — | $35.70 (−5.90%) |
Sep 1, 2026 7w ago | Insider Buy | $38.19 | awaiting T+60 | — | $35.70 (−6.52%) |
Aug 5, 2026 11w ago | 8-K | $41.12 | awaiting T+60 | — | $35.70 (−13.18%) |
Jun 12, 2026 19w ago | Institutional Cluster | $44.42 $37.88 | ▼ −14.72% | ▼ −17.99% | $35.70 (−19.63%) |
May 6, 2026 24w ago | 8-K | $37.81 $42.37 | ▲ +12.06% | ▲ +10.00% | $35.70 (−5.58%) |
Apr 23, 2026 26w ago | DEFA14A | $35.55 $43.22 | ▲ +21.58% | ▲ +16.56% | $35.70 (+0.42%) |
Apr 9, 2026 28w ago | 8-K | $34.47 $43.49 | ▲ +26.17% | ▲ +15.39% | $35.70 (+3.57%) |
Feb 28, 2026 34w ago | Institutional Cluster | $40.10 $41.71 | ▲ +4.02% | ▼ −5.30% | $35.70 (−10.97%) |
Feb 28, 2026 34w ago | Institutional Cluster | $40.10 $41.71 | ▲ +4.02% | ▼ −5.30% | $35.70 (−10.97%) |
US Market Status
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