The AFFO beat and guidance uptick should support the stock in the near term, but the declining absolute AFFO and same-store NOI highlight structural headwinds. Watch the Big Bear fire impact and Q3 occupancy data for confirmation of stabilization. The 6.0x net leverage warrants monitoring if rate cuts are delayed.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Lineage Q2 2026 AFFO per share of $0.76 beat consensus of $0.61 by 24.6%, and revenue of $1.361B beat $1.35B consensus. However, GAAP net loss widened to $32M (from $7M), AFFO declined 6.2% YoY, and adjusted EBITDA fell 1.8% with margin contracting 60bps to 23.5%. Full-year guidance was modestly improved: AFFO per share range raised to $2.80-$3.05 (from $2.75-$3.00) and same-store NOI growth narrowed to (3)%–0% from (4)%–(1)%, partly reflecting a $15M headwind from the Big Bear fire. The AFFO beat and guided improvement are positives, but the underlying operating metrics remain weak, resulting in a mixed read.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q2 2026 revenue $1,361M, up 0.8% YoY
- GAAP net loss $(32)M vs $(7)M in Q2 2025, loss per share $(0.13)
- AFFO $198M, down 6.2% YoY; AFFO per share $0.76 vs consensus $0.61 (beat by 24.6%)
- Adjusted EBITDA $320M, down 1.8% YoY; margin 23.5% vs 24.1%
- Same-warehouse NOI declined 2.9% YoY, but physical occupancy improved 90bps to 75.8%
- Global Integrated Solutions revenue fell 6.3% YoY; NOI down 10.3% (flat excluding $7M legal settlement)
- Full-year 2026 guidance updated: Adj. EBITDA $1.26-$1.29B, AFFO per share $2.80-$3.05 (raised low end)
- Big Bear facility fire expected to create $15M headwind in 2H26
- Net debt/LTM Adj. EBITDA 6.0x, adjusted leverage 5.3x
- Declared quarterly dividend $0.5325 per share ($2.13 annualized, unchanged)
- Development pipeline of $1.6B expected to generate $134M incremental NOI upon stabilization
Financial Impact
AFFO per share beat consensus by $0.15 (24.6%); revenue beat by $11M (0.8%); guidance range narrowed higher, implying modest upside to prior expectations
Risk Factors
- Ongoing tariff and global trade disruption impacting customer demand
- Big Bear fire could incur unexpected costs beyond $15M guidance headwind
- 6.0x net debt/EBITDA leverage constrains financial flexibility
- GIS segment revenue contraction of 6.3% YoY may persist
- Interest expense up 29.9% YoY to $87M, pressuring earnings
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001868159-26-000038 |
| Document: final-lineageinc2q26earn.htm | 0001868159-26-000038 |
| Document: line-20260805.htm | 0001868159-26-000038 |
| Document: 0001868159-26-000038-index-headers.html | 0001868159-26-000038 |
| Document: 0001868159-26-000038-index.html | 0001868159-26-000038 |
| Document: 0001868159-26-000038.txt | 0001868159-26-000038 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001868159-26-000038 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 22, 2026 5d ago | 8-K | $35.36 | awaiting T+60 | — | $35.38 (+0.06%) |
Sep 15, 2026 6w ago | Press Release | $37.94 | awaiting T+60 | — | $35.38 (−6.75%) |
Sep 1, 2026 8w ago | Insider Buy | $38.19 | awaiting T+60 | — | $35.38 (−7.36%) |
Aug 5, 2026 11w ago | 8-K | $41.12 | awaiting T+60 | — | $35.38 (−13.96%) |
Jun 12, 2026 19w ago | Institutional Cluster | $44.42 $37.88 | ▼ −14.72% | ▼ −17.99% | $35.38 (−20.35%) |
May 6, 2026 24w ago | 8-K | $37.81 $42.37 | ▲ +12.06% | ▲ +10.00% | $35.38 (−6.43%) |
Apr 23, 2026 26w ago | DEFA14A | $35.55 $43.22 | ▲ +21.58% | ▲ +16.56% | $35.38 (−0.48%) |
Apr 9, 2026 28w ago | 8-K | $34.47 $43.49 | ▲ +26.17% | ▲ +15.39% | $35.38 (+2.64%) |
Feb 28, 2026 34w ago | Institutional Cluster | $40.10 $41.71 | ▲ +4.02% | ▼ −5.30% | $35.38 (−11.76%) |
Feb 28, 2026 34w ago | Institutional Cluster | $40.10 $41.71 | ▲ +4.02% | ▼ −5.30% | $35.38 (−11.76%) |
US Market Status
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