With UBS adding a Buy rating at a price target well above current levels and the stock near the low end of consensus, the risk/reward is favorable. Traders should use this as a confirmatory signal to add or hold positions, especially given supportive institutional flows.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
UBS initiated coverage on Lithia Motors (LAD) with a Buy rating and a $348 price target, implying 25.8% upside from the current $276.58. The analyst consensus is heavily bullish: 75% Buy or Strong Buy, 25% Hold, no Sell ratings. The mean price target is $371.73, with a high of $449 and low of $300. UBS's PT sits below consensus mean but above the low. The firm carries a 55% accuracy rate on 5,083 calls with a 4.6% average return. Earnings revision momentum is mixed: near-term estimates show more downward revisions (6 down vs 3 up for next quarter), while the current year has balanced revisions. Institutional activity is supportive — Two Sigma doubled its stake and FMR added 60% — while small insider sells are not concerning. The initiation adds a fresh bullish voice to an already positive consensus, with the stock trading near the low end of the analyst target range.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Among the 15 analysts covering LAD, the consensus is 75% Buy/Strong Buy (7 Strong Buy, 8 Buy) and 25% Hold (5 Hold), with 0% Sell. This is a strongly bullish consensus direction, with no bearish voices.
The mean price target is $371.73, median $376, high $449, and low $300. Current price of $276.58 implies 34.4% upside to the mean. UBS's $348 PT is 6.4% below the mean but 16.1% above the low, positioning it as a moderately bullish call within the existing range.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | UBS | initiate | Buy | $348.00 |
| 2026-05-07 | JP Morgan | maintain | Neutral | $325.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $365.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Equal-Weight | $305.00 |
| 2026-04-17 | JP Morgan | maintain | Neutral | $320.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Equal-Weight | $293.00 |
| 2026-04-08 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | — |
| 2026-04-07 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | — |
| 2026-03-30 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | Outperform | — |
| 2026-03-05 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | — |
In the past 30 days, there has been 1 upgrade (this initiation) and 0 downgrades. EPS revision trends are mixed: for the current fiscal year, 6 upward vs 6 downward revisions in 30 days; for the next quarter, 3 up vs 6 down, indicating near-term caution despite the positive analyst action.
Firm Track Record — UBS
UBS accuracy: 55% on 5083 calls | avg return: 4.6%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 9 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 100% | 2/2 | 11.5% | top tier |
| Stephens & Co. | 100% | 2/2 | 22.1% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 100% | 5/5 | 6.4% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 80% | 4/5 | 4.4% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 73% | 8/11 | 7.9% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 73% | 8/11 | 2.4% | top tier |
| Guggenheim | 71% | 5/7 | 6.5% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 0% | 0/2 | -10.2% | below average |
| Benchmark | 0% | 0/2 | -16.6% | below average |
UBS has a 55% accuracy rate on 5,083 calls with an average return of 4.6%, placing it in the middle tier among firms covering LAD. Top performers on this name include Goldman Sachs, Stephens & Co., and Citigroup (each 100% accuracy on 2-5 calls). Evercore ISI and Benchmark have 0% accuracy on 2 calls each, underperforming.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1y | $40.60 | $37.15 — $44.71 | $40.0B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| 0q | $8.64 | $7.94 — $9.18 | $9.6B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $34.39 | $33.26 — $35.52 | $38.5B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| +1q | $9.55 | $8.98 — $10.79 | $9.9B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades show two small sell transactions over the past three months ($72k and $19k), not a strong bearish signal. Institutional activity is supportive: Two Sigma doubled its stake (+185.5%), FMR added 60.3%, and Norges Bank initiated a new $125M position, offsetting a 39% trim by Morgan Stanley. Short interest data is unavailable. The institutional buying converges with the bullish analyst sentiment.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 21, 2026 6d ago | 8-K | $269.13 $291.07 | ▲ +8.15% | ▲ +9.33% | $287.86 (+6.96%) |
Sep 29, 2026 28d ago | Press Release | $289.26 | awaiting T+1 | — | $287.86 (−0.48%) |
Sep 25, 2026 4w ago | 8-K | $303.07 $289.26 | ▼ −4.56% | ▼ −4.37% | $287.86 (−5.02%) |
Sep 14, 2026 6w ago | Insider Cluster | $345.91 $339.23 | ▼ −1.93% | ▼ −1.49% | $287.86 (−16.78%) |
Aug 25, 2026 9w ago | Press Release | $371.89 $370.15 | ▼ −0.47% | ▼ −0.49% | $287.86 (−22.59%) |
Jul 30, 2026 12w ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $405.03 $385.42 | ▼ −4.84% | ▼ −5.55% | $287.86 (−28.93%) |
Jul 29, 2026 12w ago | 8-K | $427.48 $405.03 | ▼ −5.25% | ▼ −6.93% | $287.86 (−32.66%) |
Jul 29, 2026 12w ago | Press Release | $427.48 $405.03 | ▼ −5.25% | ▼ −6.93% | $287.86 (−32.66%) |
Jul 14, 2026 15w ago | Press Release | $319.25 | awaiting T+1 | — | $287.86 (−9.83%) |
Jun 20, 2026 18w ago | Institutional Cluster | $295.15 $297.08 | ▲ +0.65% | ▲ +2.11% | $287.86 (−2.47%) |
US Market Status
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