EFFECT ·Filed May 15, 2026

KPTI

Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc.
BEARISH
Impact 7/10
Horizonimmediate Processed4mo ago SEC9999999995-26-001656
Actionable Insight ▼ Bearish

Expect near-term downward pressure as the market absorbs the massive overhang. Watch for any immediate ATM sales or registered secondary offerings; further weakness likely until Karyopharm clarifies its financing plan or shows a path to profitability.

DirectionBearish
Confidencehigh
Horizonimmediate
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
KPTI ▲ +25.68% at T+20d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -25.68% · α vs SPY -23.57% · entry $7.67 → $9.64
Next anchor: T+60d due 7w ago
Latest observation: T+56 +107.53% FF3 residual α
Entry anchored
May 15, 2026
via day open
T+1d
-6.91%
call +6.91% · α +6.85%
$7.14
settled 5mo ago
T+5d
+6.39%
call -6.39% · α -5.43%
$8.16
settled 4mo ago
T+20d
+25.68%
call -25.68% · α -23.57%
$9.64
settled 4mo ago
T+60d
—
call — · α —
—
due 7w ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Two shelf registrations effective: a $400M universal shelf (including $100M ATM) and an 8.8M-share resale shelf. This enables immediate equity dilution at a company with a $201M market cap and going-concern doubts, dramatically increasing supply risk.

Key Facts

  • Both S-3 shelves (Nos. 333-295533 and 333-295535) declared effective May 14, 2026.
  • $400M universal shelf includes $100M ATM; potential dilution ~200% of current market cap.
  • 8.8M-share resale shelf for RA Capital (no proceeds to company) also effective.
  • Auditor has expressed substantial doubt about Karyopharm's ability to continue as a going concern.
  • No financial proceeds from the resale shelf; proceeds from universal shelf would be used for general corporate purposes.

Financial Impact

Potential dilution exceeding 200% of $201M market cap via the $400M universal shelf; additional 8.8M shares from resale shelf (about 4.4% of current float).

dilutionmarket capstock price

Risk Factors

  • Immediate dilutive share sales under the ATM or universal shelf.
  • Continued going concern uncertainty limiting institutional demand.
  • Failure to secure non-dilutive financing alternatives.

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Pharmaceutical Preparations
Analyst Consensus
85% bullish (13 analysts)

Investment Themes

Biotech & Drug Discovery

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
EFFECT Filing (KPTI) — Batch item 19999999995-26-001656
Document: 9999999995-26-001656-index.html9999999995-26-001655
Document: 9999999995-26-001656.txt9999999995-26-001656
EFFECT Filing (KPTI) — Batch item 49999999995-26-001655
Document: 9999999995-26-001655-index.html9999999995-26-001656
Document: 9999999995-26-001655.txt9999999995-26-001656
17 reports for KPTI
Performance horizon
86% Hit rate 6 of 7 directional calls best @ T+60▲ +71.57%May 15, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for KPTI — sortable, filterable
TypeNow
Sep 11, 2026
21d ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 9/10
$1.61 $1.88▼ −16.77%▼ −16.99%$0.8050 (+50.00%)
Aug 31, 2026
4w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$2.06 $1.72▼ −16.50%▼ −16.36%$0.8050 (−60.92%)
Aug 13, 2026
7w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 8/10
$1.99 $1.82▲ +8.54%▲ +6.58%$0.8050 (+59.55%)
Aug 10, 2026
7w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$1.96 $1.81▼ −7.65%▼ −7.61%$0.8050 (−58.93%)
Jul 31, 2026
9w ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$1.92 $2.12▲ +10.42%▲ +6.91%$0.8050 (−58.07%)
Jul 17, 2026
10w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$7.47 $7.41▼ −0.80%▼ −0.38%$0.8050 (−89.22%)
May 15, 2026
19w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$7.14 $8.97▲ +25.63%▲ +24.01%$0.8050 (−88.73%)
May 15, 2026
19w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$7.14 $8.97▲ +25.63%▲ +24.01%$0.8050 (−88.73%)
May 15, 2026
19w ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 6/10
$7.14 $8.97▼ −25.63%▼ −24.01%$0.8050 (+88.73%)
May 15, 2026
19w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$7.14 $8.97▲ +25.63%▲ +24.01%$0.8050 (−88.73%)
Showing 10 of 17

US Market Status

Market Open — Closes in 2h 19m

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