For KEY-PJ holders, the key credit metrics (CET1 ratio, NCO ratio, NIM trajectory) are all trending positively. Monitor the 4Q27 NIM target of 3.25%+ and the planned $1.3B common share repurchase, which increases equity cushion below the preferred. No near-term call risk is indicated, but the improving credit profile supports the preferred's fixed dividend.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
KeyCorp posted an investor presentation on May 29, 2026, highlighting its strong capital position, improving net interest margin outlook, and raised 2026 guidance for net interest income and loan growth. The presentation also noted a $3.0 billion share repurchase authorization and a credit rating upgrade from Fitch. For the preferred stock (KEY-PJ), the key credit-positive takeaways are the issuer's peer-leading capital ratios, de-risked credit profile, and positive operating momentum, which support dividend coverage.
Key Facts
- FY2026 net interest income guidance raised to up 9-10% (previously up 8-10%) vs FY2025 baseline of $4,671 million.
- FY2026 average loan growth guidance raised to up 2-4% (previously up 1-2%); average commercial loan growth raised to up 6-8% (previously up ~5%).
- 4Q27 NIM exit rate target of ~3.05% (previously 3.00-3.05%), with a path to 3.25%+ NIM by 4Q27.
- Board authorized a new $3.0 billion share repurchase program in May 2026; $1.3 billion in planned 2026 repurchases ($389 million completed in 1Q26).
- Marked CET1 ratio of 10.0% at 1Q26, within the 9.5%-10% target operating range and among top quartile of peers.
- 1Q26 diluted EPS of $0.44, up 33% YoY; net interest income (TE) of $1,230 million, up 11% YoY; revenue (TE) of $1,953 million, up 10% YoY.
- Received a credit ratings upgrade from Fitch and a Positive outlook from Moody's.
- 10-year average net charge-off ratio of 30 bps; 1Q26 NCO ratio of 38 bps annualized.
Financial Impact
The raised NII and loan guidance, combined with the $3.0B buyback authorization and strong capital ratios, signal improving credit fundamentals and earnings power for the issuer, which supports preferred dividend coverage.
Risk Factors
- Macroeconomic uncertainty could slow loan growth or increase credit losses beyond the guided 40-45 bps NCO range.
- The NIM expansion path depends on the pace of Fed rate cuts and the successful repricing of fixed-rate assets.
- The Clearwater UK acquisition closing in 2H26 introduces integration risk.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-039245 |
| Document: key-20260529.htm | 0001628280-26-039245 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-039245-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-039245 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-039245-index.html | 0001628280-26-039245 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-039245.txt | 0001628280-26-039245 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 14, 2026 18d ago | 8-K | $21.93 $20.87 | ▼ −4.83% | ▼ −4.94% | $20.09 (−8.37%) |
Aug 4, 2026 8w ago | Press Release | $23.10 $22.69 | ▼ −1.77% | ▼ −1.68% | $20.09 (−13.01%) |
Jul 31, 2026 8w ago | Press Release | $22.81 $22.68 | ▲ +0.57% | ▲ +2.60% | $20.09 (+11.90%) |
Jul 21, 2026 10w ago | 8-K | $22.95 $22.51 | ▼ −1.92% | ▼ −0.69% | $20.09 (−12.44%) |
Jun 25, 2026 14w ago | EFFECT | $23.41 $23.25 | ▲ +0.68% | ▲ +2.24% | $20.09 (+14.16%) |
Jun 22, 2026 14w ago | S-3/A | $23.02 $23.15 | ▼ −0.56% | ▲ +0.45% | $20.09 (+12.71%) |
Jun 10, 2026 16w ago | 424B5 | $24.85 $25.00 | ▲ +0.60% | ▼ −0.61% | $20.09 (−19.13%) |
Jun 5, 2026 16w ago | S-3 | $24.92 $24.94 | ▲ +0.08% | ▼ −2.03% | $20.09 (−19.36%) |
Jun 5, 2026 16w ago | S-3ASR | $24.92 $24.94 | ▲ +0.08% | ▼ −2.03% | $20.09 (−19.36%) |
Jun 3, 2026 17w ago | 8-K | $20.23 $20.50 | ▲ +1.33% | ▲ +3.89% | $20.09 (−0.67%) |
US Market Status
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