The sharp book value decline and negative economic return reflect severe spread widening in Agency RMBS during the quarter. Monitor the Q4 2026 book value trajectory and whether the company can maintain its $0.36 monthly dividend given the EAD coverage ratio of 1.3x ($0.47 EAD vs $0.36 dividend). The ATM issuance of $51M at depressed book value is dilutive to existing holders.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Invesco Mortgage Capital reported a GAAP net loss of $0.92 per share for Q3 2026, swinging from net income of $0.34 in Q2 2026, driven by a $402M net loss on investments from widening Agency RMBS spreads. Book value per share fell 16.1% to $6.74 from $8.03, and the economic return was negative 11.6%. However, the mREIT's core metric, earnings available for distribution (EAD) per share, was $0.47, slightly above the $0.46 consensus estimate, while net interest income grew to $33.9M from $30.1M sequentially.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders of $98.8M in Q3 2026 vs net income of $31.8M in Q2 2026
- GAAP diluted EPS of ($0.92) vs $0.34 in Q2 2026
- Earnings available for distribution (EAD) per share of $0.47 vs $0.50 in Q2 2026, vs consensus estimate of $0.46
- Book value per common share fell 16.1% to $6.74 from $8.03 at June 30, 2026
- Economic return of negative 11.6% vs positive 3.8% in Q2 2026
- Net loss on investments of $402.1M, partially offset by $277.7M gain on derivatives
- Debt-to-equity ratio increased to 7.6x from 6.3x; economic debt-to-equity ratio rose to 8.3x from 7.5x
- Issued 6.7M common shares for net proceeds of $51.0M through ATM program during the quarter
- Monthly common dividends unchanged at $0.36 per share
- Net interest income increased to $33.9M from $30.1M in Q2 2026
Financial Impact
GAAP net loss of $98.8M; book value decline of $1.29 per share (16.1%); EAD of $50.3M ($0.47 per share) vs consensus $0.46
Risk Factors
- Further spread widening in Agency RMBS could drive additional book value erosion
- Elevated leverage (8.3x economic debt-to-equity) amplifies portfolio losses in volatile rate environments
- Dividend coverage by EAD is thin at 1.3x, leaving little margin for error
- ATM issuance at prices below book value is dilutive to common shareholders
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001437071-26-000080 |
| Document: ivr-20261029.htm | 0001437071-26-000080 |
| Document: 0001437071-26-000080-index-headers.html | 0001437071-26-000080 |
| Document: 0001437071-26-000080-index.html | 0001437071-26-000080 |
| Document: 0001437071-26-000080.txt | 0001437071-26-000080 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001437071-26-000080 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 29, 2026 3d ago | 8-K | No price | awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | No price |
Oct 29, 2026 3d ago | Press Release | $5.35 | awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | $5.31 (+0.75%) |
Oct 21, 2026 11d ago | Press Release | $5.52 $5.44 | ▼ −1.45% | ▼ −2.16% | $5.31 (−3.80%) |
Oct 14, 2026 18d ago | 8-K | $5.64 $5.52 | ▲ +2.13% | ▲ +1.11% | $5.31 (+5.85%) |
Oct 14, 2026 18d ago | Press Release | $5.64 $5.52 | ▼ −2.13% | ▼ −1.11% | $5.31 (−5.85%) |
Sep 15, 2026 6w ago | Press Release | $6.46 $6.46 | · 0.00% | ▼ −1.82% | $5.31 (−17.80%) |
Aug 3, 2026 12w ago | 8-K | $7.40 $7.45 | ▲ +0.68% | ▲ +0.78% | $5.31 (−28.24%) |
Jul 30, 2026 13w ago | Press Release | $7.41 $7.48 | ▼ −0.94% | ▲ +2.57% | $5.31 (+28.34%) |
Jun 12, 2026 20w ago | 8-K | $8.06 $7.91 | ▼ −1.86% | ▼ −0.48% | $5.31 (−34.12%) |
Jun 11, 2026 20w ago | Institutional Cluster | $8.00 $8.05 | ▲ +0.63% | ▲ +0.19% | $5.31 (−33.63%) |
US Market Status
Subscribe to SecBot
Get Real-Time SEC Filing Intelligence
Comprehensive SEC filing analysis delivered the moment filings hit EDGAR. Sentiment scoring, impact analysis, and actionable insights for every material event.
Create a free account Live analysis, Telegram alerts, watchlists and the MCP server for subscribers