The sharp Q3 EBITDA guidance step-up ($780-$830M vs $587M in Q2) suggests management expects a strong second half, but the revenue miss and narrowed full-year range create uncertainty. Watch for commentary on box volume trends, input cost mitigation, and the planned EMEA separation timeline on the earnings call.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
International Paper reported Q2 2026 adjusted operating EPS of $0.04, beating consensus of -$0.04 by 205%, but revenue of $6.00B missed the $6.21B estimate by 3.3%. The full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance was narrowed to $3.20-$3.40B from $3.20-$3.50B, implying a slightly lower top end. The mixed results—revenue miss and guidance tweak partially offset by an EPS beat on low expectations—suggest a neutral to cautious near-term outlook.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q2 2026 net sales: $6.004B vs $6.142B YoY (-2.2%)
- GAAP diluted loss from continuing ops: -$0.02 per share; adjusted operating EPS: $0.04 (non-GAAP)
- Adjusted EBITDA from continuing ops: $587M vs $670M YoY (-12.4%)
- Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance narrowed to $3.20-$3.40B (from $3.20-$3.50B)
- Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance: $780-$830M, including $85M negative impact from Pine Hill mill closure
- Free cash flow: -$7M in Q2; operating cash flow $526M
- PS North America operating profit: $204M; PS EMEA operating loss: $80M
- Net special items: $54M pre-tax ($42M after-tax), driven by separation costs and acquisition costs
Financial Impact
Adjusted EPS beat by 205% on low expectations, but revenue miss of ~$206M and lowered top-end FY guidance cap the upside. Stock likely moves modestly as the market weighs the beat against the revenue shortfall.
Risk Factors
- Revenue miss indicates softening demand, particularly in EMEA where geopolitical uncertainty weighs
- Full-year guidance top end reduced by $100M; further cuts possible if macro conditions worsen
- PS EMEA segment operating loss of $80M vs -$51M in Q1; separation costs are ongoing
- Free cash flow turned negative ($-7M) due to elevated capex ($533M)
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0000051434-26-000115 |
| Document: ip-20260730.htm | 0000051434-26-000115 |
| Document: 0000051434-26-000115-index-headers.html | 0000051434-26-000115 |
| Document: 0000051434-26-000115-index.html | 0000051434-26-000115 |
| Document: 0000051434-26-000115.txt | 0000051434-26-000115 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0000051434-26-000115 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 10, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $41.80 $34.64 | ▼ −17.13% | ▼ −16.07% | $32.07 (−23.28%) |
Jul 30, 2026 9w ago | 8-K | $43.15 $39.88 | ▼ −7.58% | ▼ −11.54% | $32.07 (−25.68%) |
Feb 26, 2026 31w ago | 8-K | $43.13 $36.15 | ▼ −16.18% | ▼ −9.78% | $32.07 (−25.64%) |
Jan 22, 2026 36w ago | Court Ruling | $41.43 $46.41 | ▲ +12.02% | ▲ +11.97% | $32.07 (−22.59%) |
Jan 22, 2026 36w ago | Court Ruling | $41.43 $46.41 | ▲ +12.02% | ▲ +11.97% | $32.07 (−22.59%) |
US Market Status
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