The double upgrade removes a major bearish overhang, but the unchanged $85 target and below-consensus price view suggest limited near-term upside conviction. The large insider buy and Pelosi purchases provide a bullish counterweight, making this a stock to watch for a potential squeeze if earnings on October 29 deliver.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
JP Morgan double-upgraded Intel Corp (INTC) from Underweight to Neutral on October 19, 2026, maintaining a $85 price target. The move removes a long-standing bearish call but keeps the target well below the current $89.85 price, implying a -5.4% downside. JP Morgan has a 55% accuracy rate on 6,091 scored calls with a 5.4% average return, placing it in the middle of the analyst pack. Consensus on INTC is heavily tilted to the buy side, with 44% Buy/Strong Buy ratings (19 of 55 analysts), 62% Hold, and 4% Sell. The mean price target is $118.05, median $115, high $200, low $80. JP Morgan's $85 target sits at the low end of the range, below the mean. Over the past 30 days, analyst activity has been net positive with 1 upgrade and 0 downgrades, and EPS revisions for the current quarter have been revised up 30 times with zero downward revisions. Insider trades show a large $10M buy by director Tan Lip Bu in August, and Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi made two purchases totaling $750K-$1.5M in July. Short interest is elevated at 59.8% of float. The double upgrade from a bearish stance is a notable shift, but the unchanged $85 target and below-consensus price view keep the overall signal mixed.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 55 analysts covering INTC, 4 rate it Strong Buy, 15 Buy (total 34.5% Buy/Strong Buy), 34 Hold (61.8%), 2 Sell (3.6%), and 0 Strong Sell. The consensus is heavily weighted toward Hold, with a minority of bullish ratings.
Current price: $89.85. Mean target: $118.05 (implied upside +31.4%). Median: $115. High: $200. Low: $80. JP Morgan's $85 target is below the mean and median, at the low end of the range, and implies -5.4% downside from current levels.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | JP Morgan | upgrade | Neutral | $85.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | Mizuho | maintain | Neutral | $114.00 |
| 2026-09-24 | TD Cowen | reiterate | Hold | $115.00 |
| 2026-09-15 | Tigress Financial | maintain | Buy | $145.00 |
| 2026-09-10 | Piper Sandler | initiate | Neutral | — |
| 2026-09-08 | Northland Capital Markets | upgrade | Outperform | $120.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | Mizuho | maintain | Neutral | — |
| 2026-08-12 | B of A Securities | maintain | Buy | — |
| 2026-08-12 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $112.00 |
| 2026-07-28 | B of A Securities | maintain | Buy | — |
Over the past 30 days, there has been 1 upgrade (JP Morgan) and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions for the current quarter (0q) show 30 upward revisions and 0 downward revisions in the last 30 days, with the average estimate rising from $0.388 to $0.395. Next quarter (+1q) has seen 2 upward revisions and 1 downward. The revision trend is clearly positive.
Firm Track Record — JP Morgan
JP Morgan accuracy: 55% on 6091 calls | avg return: 5.4%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 10%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seaport Global | 100% | 2/2 | 3.8% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 80% | 4/5 | 11.2% | top tier |
| Goldman Sachs | 75% | 3/4 | -7.7% | top tier |
| UBS | 75% | 6/8 | 8.7% | top tier |
| Needham | 71% | 5/7 | 15.1% | top tier |
| Deutsche Bank | 67% | 2/3 | 2.5% | top tier |
| Barclays | 67% | 4/6 | 8.4% | top tier |
| Roth MKM | 67% | 2/3 | 3.4% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 60% | 3/5 | 7.5% | above average |
| Truist Securities | 57% | 4/7 | 0.7% | above average |
JP Morgan has a 55% accuracy rate on 6,091 scored calls with a 5.4% average return, placing it in the middle tier. Among firms covering INTC, top performers include Seaport Global (100% on 2 calls), Morgan Stanley (80% on 5 calls), and Needham (71% on 7 calls, 15.1% avg return). Bottom performers include Baird (50% on 2 calls, -6.7% avg return) and Northland Capital Markets (50% on 2 calls, -3.8% avg return).
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Oct 29, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1q | $0.44 | $0.32 — $0.55 | $17.0B | ↑1 ↓0 |
| 0y | $1.53 | $1.12 — $1.74 | $63.2B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0q | $0.39 | $0.37 — $0.48 | $16.4B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $2.10 | $1.45 — $3.44 | $72.7B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider activity: Director Tan Lip Bu made a $10M buy on August 11, 2026 — a large, bullish signal. Congressional trades: Nancy Pelosi made two purchases totaling $750K-$1.5M in July 2026. Institutional activity shows mixed signals: Assenagon Asset Management added 87.1% ($3.6B), while TD Waterhouse trimmed 27.1% ($32.6M). Short interest is elevated at 59.8% of float, indicating heavy bearish positioning. The insider and congressional buys diverge from the analyst's cautious stance, creating a bullish contra-signal.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 26, 2026 today | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $90.70 | awaiting T+5 | — | $90.47 (−0.25%) |
Oct 21, 2026 5d ago | Institutional Cluster | $85.49 | awaiting T+5 | — | $90.47 (+5.83%) |
Oct 20, 2026 7d ago | PTAB Trial | $92.96 | awaiting T+5 | — | $90.47 (−2.68%) |
Oct 19, 2026 7d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $92.03 $90.47 | ▼ −1.70% | ▼ −1.55% | $90.47 (−1.70%) |
Sep 8, 2026 6w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | — | awaiting T+5 | — | — |
Aug 14, 2026 10w ago | Insider Buy | $103.49 $87.26 | ▼ −15.68% | ▼ −14.49% | $90.47 (−12.58%) |
Aug 12, 2026 10w ago | 8-K | $104.56 $92.13 | ▲ +11.89% | ▲ +9.92% | $90.47 (+13.48%) |
Aug 10, 2026 11w ago | 424B5 | $97.52 $103.47 | ▼ −6.10% | ▼ −6.14% | $90.47 (+7.23%) |
Aug 10, 2026 11w ago | S-3ASR | $97.52 $103.47 | ▲ +6.10% | ▲ +6.14% | $90.47 (−7.23%) |
Jul 28, 2026 13w ago | Court Ruling | $81.88 $101.06 | ▲ +23.42% | ▲ +17.90% | $90.47 (+10.49%) |
US Market Status
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