The Q4 guidance cut signals a material near-term demand downturn in Intel's core PC market, which management expects to persist through H1 2027. Monitor the January 2027 earnings call for any revision to this outlook and for signs of stabilization in client segment orders. The DCAI strength provides a partial offset but is insufficient to offset the client weakness in the near term.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Intel reported Q3 2026 revenue of $16.5B (+21% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.52, both above consensus estimates of $16.49B and $0.40. However, Q4 guidance of $15.0-16.0B revenue and $0.25 non-GAAP EPS implies a sharp sequential decline, with management citing a PC slowdown continuing through H1 2027. The stock fell 23.4% on the day, reflecting the market's focus on the weak forward outlook.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 revenue $16.5B, up 21% YoY, above $16.49B consensus
- Q3 2026 non-GAAP EPS $0.52, above $0.40 consensus
- Q3 2026 GAAP EPS $0.60, down 33% YoY from $0.90
- Q4 2026 revenue guidance $15.0-16.0B, below Q3's $16.5B
- Q4 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance $0.25, down 52% from Q3's $0.52
- DCAI segment revenue $7.3B, up 78% YoY, strongest data center growth in 15 years
- CCPG (client) segment revenue $8.1B, down 5% YoY
- Completed $23B public equity offering during Q3
- GAAP operating margin improved to 15.3% from 5.0% YoY
- Operating cash flow $5.1B in Q3, adjusted free cash flow $1.6B
Financial Impact
Q4 guidance midpoint implies ~6% sequential revenue decline and ~52% sequential non-GAAP EPS decline; the PC slowdown is the primary headwind
Segment Breakdown
| Segment | Revenue | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| CCPG (Client Computing and Physical AI Group) | $8.1B | -5.0% |
| DCAI (Data Center and AI) | $7.3B | +78.0% |
| Intel Foundry | $6.7B | +58.0% |
| All Other | $692.0M | -30.0% |
Risk Factors
- PC industry slowdown expected to continue at least through H1 2027
- Q4 GAAP gross margin guidance of 37.1% is down from Q3's 43.0%
- Recent $23B equity offering dilutes existing shareholders
- Intel Foundry segment remains unprofitable with -$1.9B operating loss in Q3
- Geopolitical and trade tensions could further impact demand and supply chain
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0000050863-26-000188 |
| Document: intc-20261029.htm | 0000050863-26-000188 |
| Document: 0000050863-26-000188-index-headers.html | 0000050863-26-000188 |
| Document: 0000050863-26-000188-index.html | 0000050863-26-000188 |
| Document: 0000050863-26-000188.txt | 0000050863-26-000188 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0000050863-26-000188 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 30, 2026 2d ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $68.12 | awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | $65.76 (−3.46%) |
Oct 29, 2026 3d ago | 8-K | $72.97 | awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | $65.76 (+9.88%) |
Oct 26, 2026 6d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $90.47 | awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | $65.76 (−27.31%) |
Oct 21, 2026 11d ago | Institutional Cluster | $85.49 $92.07 | ▲ +7.70% | ▲ +6.99% | $65.76 (−23.08%) |
Oct 20, 2026 12d ago | PTAB Trial | $92.96 $93.74 | ▲ +0.84% | ▲ +1.28% | $65.76 (−29.26%) |
Oct 19, 2026 13d ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $92.03 $90.47 | ▼ −1.70% | ▼ −1.55% | $65.76 (−28.55%) |
Sep 8, 2026 7w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | No price | awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | No price |
Aug 14, 2026 11w ago | Insider Buy | $103.49 $87.26 | ▼ −15.68% | ▼ −14.49% | $65.76 (−36.46%) |
Aug 12, 2026 11w ago | 8-K | $104.56 $92.13 | ▲ +11.89% | ▲ +9.92% | $65.76 (+37.11%) |
Aug 10, 2026 11w ago | 424B5 | $97.52 $103.47 | ▼ −6.10% | ▼ −6.14% | $65.76 (+32.57%) |
US Market Status
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