The sharp deterioration in fee-based revenue (mortgage and broker-dealer) combined with a large provision build creates a negative earnings trajectory. Monitor the Q4 2026 earnings for any further guidance revision on noninterest income and credit costs, particularly if interest rate volatility persists.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Hilltop Holdings reported Q3 2026 results with net income of $24.9M ($0.44 EPS), down 46% YoY from $45.8M ($0.74 EPS). Total revenue fell 6% YoY to $309.5M, driven by a 14% decline in noninterest income, while net interest income grew 9% to $122.4M. The bank segment showed NIM expansion to 3.49%, but the mortgage (PrimeLending) and broker-dealer (HilltopSecurities) segments posted significant pre-tax losses and margin compression.
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 net income attributable to Hilltop: $24.9M, down 46% YoY from $45.8M
- Diluted EPS of $0.44, down 41% YoY from $0.74
- Total revenue of $309.5M, down 6% YoY from $330.2M
- Noninterest income fell 14% YoY to $187.1M, driven by lower broker-dealer revenue
- Net interest income rose 9% YoY to $122.4M; NIM expanded to 3.33% from 3.06%
- PrimeLending pre-tax loss of $10.8M vs. $7.2M loss in Q3 2025
- HilltopSecurities pre-tax income fell 74% YoY to $6.8M; pre-tax margin dropped to 5.9% from 18.3%
- Provision for credit losses of $10.2M vs. a reversal of $2.5M in Q3 2025
- Efficiency ratio worsened to 85.3% from 82.3% YoY
- Return on average equity fell to 4.67% from 8.35% YoY
- Company returned $32.6M to shareholders via dividends ($12.6M) and buybacks ($20.0M, 0.51M shares)
- 2026 outlook: NII expected to increase 5-6%; mortgage origination volume $8-9B; broker dealer fees expected to decline 3-4%
Financial Impact
Net income declined by $20.9M (46%) YoY; revenue declined by $20.7M (6%) YoY; provision swung from a $2.5M reversal to a $10.2M charge
Risk Factors
- Continued pressure on mortgage origination volume and gain-on-sale margins from rising rates
- Further compression in HilltopSecurities pre-tax margin due to market volatility
- Credit quality deterioration if the economic forecast weakens, driving higher provisions
- Elevated efficiency ratio above 85% limits operating leverage
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001104659-26-118170 |
| Document: hth-ex99d1.htm | 0001104659-26-118170 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-118170-index-headers.html | 0001104659-26-118170 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-118170-index.html | 0001104659-26-118170 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-118170.txt | 0001104659-26-118170 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 22, 2026 4d ago | 8-K | $36.36 $36.57 | ▼ −0.58% | ▲ +0.13% | $36.36 (−0.00%) |
Oct 22, 2026 4d ago | 8-K | $36.36 $36.57 | ▼ −0.58% | ▲ +0.13% | $36.36 (−0.00%) |
Oct 16, 2026 9d ago | SC 13D/A | $36.26 $36.71 | ▼ −1.24% | ▼ −0.91% | $36.36 (−0.28%) |
Oct 1, 2026 24d ago | SC 13D/A | $38.45 $38.15 | ▼ −0.78% | ▼ −1.45% | $36.36 (−5.44%) |
Aug 12, 2026 10w ago | Institutional Cluster | $39.36 $39.79 | ▼ −1.09% | ▼ −0.39% | $36.36 (+7.62%) |
Jun 29, 2026 17w ago | Court Ruling | $38.78 $39.37 | ▲ +1.52% | ▲ +1.66% | $36.36 (−6.24%) |
Apr 30, 2026 25w ago | DEFA14A | $37.83 $37.20 | ▼ −1.66% | ▼ −1.32% | $36.36 (−3.89%) |
Apr 23, 2026 26w ago | 8-K | $36.46 $36.80 | ▲ +0.94% | ▲ +0.77% | $36.36 (−0.27%) |
US Market Status
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