Monitor the Turtle Creek interconnection study results due mid-August and the final investment decision in September, as these are the primary catalysts for the stock. The weak Q2 is seasonal but the reliability issues and debt draw are concerning; watch for sequential generation improvement in Q3 as guided.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Hallador Energy reported a weak Q2 2026 with a net loss of $15.2M and Adjusted EBITDA of -$2.9M, missing EPS consensus by 100% (-$0.20 actual vs -$0.10 estimate) due to higher maintenance and purchased power costs during the scheduled outage. Revenue of $101.5M beat the $90.0M estimate, driven by higher accredited capacity revenue and third-party coal sales. The company highlighted progress on its Turtle Creek gas project, now targeting commercial operation in H2 2028 with total project cost below $800M, and $2.4B in contracted revenue through 2040.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q2 2026 net loss of $15.2M vs net income of $8.2M in Q2 2025
- Adjusted EBITDA of -$2.9M vs $3.4M in prior-year period
- EPS of -$0.20 missed consensus of -$0.10 by 100%
- Revenue of $101.5M beat consensus of $90.0M by 12.8%
- Operating cash flow of -$23.9M vs $11.4M in Q2 2025
- Capital expenditures of $26.3M, primarily for reliability upgrades and Turtle Creek project
- Total bank debt of $45.0M at June 30, 2026, up from $0 at March 31, 2026
- Turtle Creek gas project targeting commercial operation in H2 2028, total cost below $800M
- $2.4 billion of contracted revenue at the segment level through 2040
- Interconnection study results expected mid-August, final investment decision targeted in September
Financial Impact
EPS miss of 100% (-$0.10 vs -$0.20) and revenue beat of 12.8% ($101.5M vs $90.0M); net loss swing of $23.4M YoY; operating cash flow decline of $35.3M YoY
Risk Factors
- Turtle Creek project delays, cost overruns, or failure to secure financing on favorable terms
- Continued operational issues at Merom leading to unplanned downtime and high purchased power costs
- High leverage with $45M bank debt and negative free cash flow
- Regulatory approval risk for contracted capacity agreements with Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic) | press-3342206 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 8, 2026 19d ago | 8-K | $14.50 | awaiting T+60 | — | $11.93 (−17.72%) |
Sep 17, 2026 5w ago | 8-K | $15.17 | awaiting T+60 | — | $11.93 (−21.36%) |
Aug 10, 2026 11w ago | 8-K | $15.64 | awaiting T+60 | — | $11.93 (−23.72%) |
Aug 10, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $15.64 | awaiting T+60 | — | $11.93 (+23.72%) |
Jul 15, 2026 14w ago | Insider Cluster | $16.05 $13.92 | ▼ −13.27% | ▼ −16.98% | $11.93 (−25.67%) |
Jun 30, 2026 16w ago | Insider Buy | $16.79 $14.54 | ▼ −13.40% | ▼ −16.36% | $11.93 (−28.95%) |
Jun 26, 2026 17w ago | 8-K | $16.93 $15.07 | ▼ −10.99% | ▼ −15.37% | $11.93 (−29.53%) |
Jun 25, 2026 17w ago | Insider Buy | $18.15 $15.12 | ▼ −16.69% | ▼ −20.55% | $11.93 (−34.27%) |
Jun 11, 2026 19w ago | 8-K | $16.44 $16.90 | ▲ +2.80% | ▼ −0.47% | $11.93 (−27.43%) |
Jun 5, 2026 20w ago | 8-K | $16.92 | awaiting T+60 | — | $11.93 (−29.49%) |
US Market Status
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