The record capacity pricing and long-duration contract with an investment-grade counterparty significantly de-risk Hallador's revenue visibility through 2035. Watch for updates on the Turtle Creek natural gas project air permit and any additional capacity contracts that could further extend the forward sales book beyond 2040.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Hallador Energy's subsidiary signed six-year capacity and energy agreements with Duke Energy Indiana covering Merom Station output from June 2029 through May 2035. The capacity agreement is priced at a record level (over 20% above the prior March contract), and the combined deals push Hallador's total forward sales book to approximately $3 billion at the segment level. The agreements require no regulatory approval and lock in rising per-MWh revenue from $46 in 2026 to $73 by 2030, with ~95% of Merom's accredited capacity now under contract through 2035.
Key Facts
- Six-year PPA and ZRC agreement with Duke Energy Indiana (investment-grade utility) from June 1, 2029 through May 31, 2035.
- Capacity agreement priced at the highest capacity price Hallador has contracted to date, more than 20% above the March 2026 contract.
- Total forward sales book increased to $3 billion at the segment level.
- Capacity revenue of approximately $271 million over the six-year term; estimated energy revenue of approximately $422 million.
- Contracted accredited capacity revenue per MWh rises from $46.07 in 2026 to $73.26 in 2030 and $75.35 for 2031-2035.
- Approximately 95% of Merom's accredited capacity is under contract through 2035; about two-thirds contracted for 2036-2040.
- Agreements are effective upon signing and require no regulatory approval.
- Company is advancing the 460-MW Turtle Creek natural gas project (air permit application submitted September 25, 2026).
Financial Impact
Approximately $693 million in combined capacity ($271M) and estimated energy ($422M) revenue over the six-year term; total forward sales book reaches $3 billion at segment level.
Risk Factors
- Unit-contingent energy deliveries — if Merom units are offline, energy revenue may be materially lower than estimates.
- Duke Energy Indiana has a volume option to reduce energy purchases to zero for up to 90 days per contract year.
- Estimated energy revenue ($422M) is based on forward curves and could vary materially from actual volumes and pricing.
- Turtle Creek project is still in permitting stage and has not reached a final investment decision.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-065410 |
| Document: hnrg-20261007.htm | 0001628280-26-065410 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-065410-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-065410 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-065410-index.html | 0001628280-26-065410 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-065410.txt | 0001628280-26-065410 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 8, 2026 19d ago | 8-K | $14.50 | awaiting T+60 | — | $10.99 (−24.21%) |
Sep 17, 2026 5w ago | 8-K | $15.17 | awaiting T+60 | — | $10.99 (−27.55%) |
Aug 10, 2026 11w ago | 8-K | $15.64 | awaiting T+60 | — | $10.99 (−29.73%) |
Aug 10, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $15.64 | awaiting T+60 | — | $10.99 (+29.73%) |
Jul 15, 2026 14w ago | Insider Cluster | $16.05 $13.92 | ▼ −13.27% | ▼ −16.98% | $10.99 (−31.53%) |
Jun 30, 2026 16w ago | Insider Buy | $16.79 $14.54 | ▼ −13.40% | ▼ −16.36% | $10.99 (−34.54%) |
Jun 26, 2026 17w ago | 8-K | $16.93 $15.07 | ▼ −10.99% | ▼ −15.37% | $10.99 (−35.09%) |
Jun 25, 2026 17w ago | Insider Buy | $18.15 $15.12 | ▼ −16.69% | ▼ −20.55% | $10.99 (−39.45%) |
Jun 11, 2026 19w ago | 8-K | $16.44 $16.90 | ▲ +2.80% | ▼ −0.47% | $10.99 (−33.15%) |
Jun 5, 2026 20w ago | 8-K | $16.92 | awaiting T+60 | — | $10.99 (−35.05%) |
US Market Status
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