The Blue Creek mine ramp is driving a step-change in volumes and margins, with Q1 results already tracking ahead of the full-year guidance midpoint. The completion of construction capex signals a transition to free cash flow generation in coming quarters. Monitor Q2 longwall moves (two planned) for production cadence, and track HCC index pricing for margin sensitivity.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Warrior Met Coal reported Q1 2026 net income of $72.3M ($1.37/diluted share) vs a net loss of $8.2M (-$0.16/share) in Q1 2025, driven by a 38% increase in record sales volumes to 3.0M short tons from the Blue Creek mine. Total revenue rose 53% to $458.6M, and Adjusted EBITDA surged 263% to $143.4M, while the company reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance for 12.5-13.5M short tons of coal sales.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q1 2026 net income of $72.3M vs net loss of $8.2M in Q1 2025
- Diluted EPS of $1.37 vs -$0.16 in prior year quarter
- Record quarterly sales volumes of 3.0M short tons, up 38% YoY
- Total revenue of $458.6M, up 53% from $299.9M YoY
- Adjusted EBITDA of $143.4M, up 263% from $39.5M YoY
- Cash cost of sales per short ton fell 14% to $96.17 from $112.35
- Blue Creek mine construction completed with total project spend of $1,022.9M
- Full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed: 12.5-13.5M short tons coal sales
Financial Impact
Revenue increased $158.6M YoY; net income swung from -$8.2M to +$72.3M; Adjusted EBITDA increased $103.9M
Risk Factors
- Challenging steelmaking coal pricing environment with weak global demand and Chinese export pressure
- Four planned longwall moves in 2026 (two in Q2) could disrupt production cadence
- Free cash flow remained negative at -$91.9M due to working capital build from higher sales volumes
- Geopolitical uncertainty from Middle East conflict and trade/tariff policies
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001193125-26-197165 |
| Document: hcc-20260430.htm | 0001193125-26-197165 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-197165-index-headers.html | 0001193125-26-197165 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-197165-index.html | 0001193125-26-197165 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-197165.txt | 0001193125-26-197165 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001193125-26-197165 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 26, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $105.22 $88.95 | ▲ +15.46% | ▲ +15.61% | $85.15 (+19.07%) |
Aug 21, 2026 9w ago | Insider Cluster | $106.73 $88.47 | ▼ −17.11% | ▼ −16.58% | $85.15 (−20.21%) |
Aug 19, 2026 9w ago | 144 | $103.36 $87.93 | ▼ −14.93% | ▼ −14.93% | $85.15 (−17.61%) |
Apr 30, 2026 25w ago | 8-K | $86.20 $106.25 | ▲ +23.26% | ▲ +17.98% | $85.15 (−1.21%) |
Apr 21, 2026 26w ago | 8-K | $90.51 $85.60 | ▼ −5.42% | ▼ −10.34% | $85.15 (−5.92%) |
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