Monitor Q4 2026 results for evidence of the pricing improvements and margin recovery management has guided for. The sequential margin expansion is encouraging, but the company needs to demonstrate a return to year-over-year EBITDA growth to de-risk the elevated leverage profile.
How the stock moved after the report
⚠ Clustered BEARISH VIEWSTOCK ABOVE ENTRY AT T+1- T+0 · Nov 3 $11.31entry
- T+1 · 14h ago +3.89%α +2.24% · $11.75
- T+5 · in 5d Pending
- T+20 · in 27d Pending
- T+60 · in 3mo Pending
Price Chart
How similar events traded
Executive Summary
Graphic Packaging reported Q3 2026 net sales of $2,192M (flat YoY) and adjusted EPS of $0.23, in line with the $0.22 consensus. Adjusted EBITDA fell 25% to $289M from $383M a year ago, with margin contracting to 13.2% from 17.5%, driven by $83M of commodity input and operating cost inflation. Full-year guidance was tightened to approximately $8.6B revenue, $1.05B adjusted EBITDA, and $0.65 adjusted EPS, while adjusted cash flow guidance was reaffirmed at $600-$700M. The sequential margin improvement for the second consecutive quarter is a positive trend, but the severe year-over-year earnings decline and elevated leverage (4.8x) keep the outlook cautious.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q3 2026 net sales $2,192M vs $2,190M YoY, essentially flat
- GAAP net income $22M ($0.07/diluted share) vs $142M ($0.48) YoY
- Adjusted net income $67M ($0.23/diluted share) vs $172M ($0.58) YoY
- Adjusted EBITDA $289M vs $383M YoY, down 25%
- Adjusted EBITDA margin 13.2% vs 17.5% YoY, but expanded sequentially for second consecutive quarter
- Full-year 2026 guidance: net sales ~$8.6B, adjusted EBITDA ~$1.05B, adjusted EPS ~$0.65
- Adjusted cash flow guidance reaffirmed at $600-$700M
- Net leverage ratio 4.8x vs 3.8x at year-end 2025
- Net debt reduced to $5,183M from $5,331M at year-end 2025
- Year-to-date adjusted cash flow $314M, up from -$332M in the prior year period
Financial Impact
Adjusted EBITDA declined $94M YoY in Q3, driven by $83M of commodity input and operating cost inflation. Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of ~$1.05B is down from $1.25B at the high end of prior guidance. Net leverage at 4.8x remains elevated.
Risk Factors
- Continued commodity input and operating cost inflation pressuring margins
- Net leverage ratio of 4.8x limits financial flexibility
- Full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $0.65 implies a sharp decline from $1.51 in the prior year period
- Execution risk on cost reduction and commercial excellence initiatives
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001408075-26-000047 |
| Document: gpk-20261103.htm | 0001408075-26-000047 |
| Document: 0001408075-26-000047-index-headers.html | 0001408075-26-000047 |
| Document: 0001408075-26-000047-index.html | 0001408075-26-000047 |
| Document: 0001408075-26-000047.txt | 0001408075-26-000047 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001408075-26-000047 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 4, 2026 today | 144 | $11.99 | awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | $11.31 (−5.67%) |
Nov 4, 2026 today | Institutional Cluster | $11.87 | awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | $11.31 (+4.72%) |
Nov 3, 2026 1d ago | 8-K | $11.31 $11.75 | ▼ −3.89% | ▼ −2.24% | $11.31 (−0.00%) |
Oct 1, 2026 4w ago | Press Release | $8.78 | awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | $11.31 (+28.82%) |
Sep 28, 2026 5w ago | 8-K | $9.25 $9.21 | ▼ −0.43% | ▼ −0.25% | $11.31 (+22.27%) |
Aug 17, 2026 11w ago | 8-K | $10.97 $11.40 | ▲ +3.92% | ▲ +3.71% | $11.31 (+3.10%) |
Aug 6, 2026 12w ago | 144 | $11.87 $12.10 | ▲ +1.94% | ▲ +1.33% | $11.31 (−4.72%) |
Jul 29, 2026 14w ago | Press Release | $10.96 $10.73 | ▼ −2.10% | ▼ −2.80% | $11.31 (+3.19%) |
May 26, 2026 23w ago | 8-K | $10.29 $10.82 | ▲ +5.15% | ▲ +5.14% | $11.31 (+9.91%) |
May 5, 2026 26w ago | 8-K | $10.73 $11.20 | ▼ −4.38% | ▼ −3.00% | $11.31 (−5.41%) |
US Market Status
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