Monitor upcoming quarterly results for progress against these long-term targets, particularly same-restaurant sales growth and new unit economics. The free cash flow inflection in 2027 is a key milestone to track.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
First Watch Restaurant Group posted an investor presentation on August 4, 2026, outlining long-term annual growth targets. The targets include ~55 new system-wide restaurant openings, same-restaurant sales growth of 2% to 4%, total revenue growth of 10% to 13%, and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 11% to 14%. The company also guided for positive free cash flow beginning in 2027. This is a forward-looking strategic update with no actual financial results reported, making it a neutral event with moderate impact as it provides a framework for future performance expectations.
Key Facts
- Long-term annual growth targets include ~55 new system-wide restaurant openings (~50 company-owned, ~5 franchise-owned) per year.
- Same-restaurant sales growth target of 2% to 4% (including positive underlying traffic, net of sales transfer from new restaurant growth).
- Total revenue growth target of 10% to 13%.
- Adjusted EBITDA growth target of 11% to 14%.
- G&A expense growth targeted to be lower than total revenue growth.
- Positive free cash flow targeted to begin in 2027 and increase each year.
- Class of 2026 new unit economics: $1.8M net build cost, $2.8M 3rd-year sales target, ~35% cash-on-cash return.
- Total addressable market opportunity of 2,200+ units in the continental U.S.
Financial Impact
No actual financial results reported. Targets include 10-13% total revenue growth and 11-14% Adjusted EBITDA growth annually.
Risk Factors
- Failure to achieve same-restaurant sales growth targets due to consumer spending shifts or competition.
- Execution risk in opening ~50 company-owned restaurants annually while maintaining unit-level returns.
- Inflationary pressure on food and labor costs could compress margins and delay free cash flow generation.
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001789940-26-000092 |
| Exhibit: exh991q22026irsitedecklt.htm | 0001789940-26-000092 |
| Document: 0001789940-26-000092-index-headers.html | 0001789940-26-000092 |
| Document: 0001789940-26-000092-index.html | 0001789940-26-000092 |
| Document: 0001789940-26-000092.txt | 0001789940-26-000092 |
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 22, 2026 5d ago | SC 13G/A | $11.56 | awaiting T+60 | — | $11.09 (−4.07%) |
Oct 20, 2026 7d ago | Press Release | $11.97 | awaiting T+60 | — | $11.09 (−7.35%) |
Aug 4, 2026 12w ago | 8-K | $12.80 | awaiting T+60 | — | $11.09 (−13.36%) |
Jun 8, 2026 20w ago | 8-K | $10.26 $12.11 | ▲ +18.03% | ▲ +14.22% | $11.09 (+8.09%) |
Jun 8, 2026 20w ago | Press Release | $10.26 $12.11 | ▲ +18.03% | ▲ +14.22% | $11.09 (+8.09%) |
May 5, 2026 25w ago | 8-K | $12.18 $13.34 | ▲ +9.52% | ▲ +6.78% | $11.09 (−8.95%) |
May 5, 2026 25w ago | Press Release | $12.18 $13.34 | ▲ +9.52% | ▲ +6.78% | $11.09 (−8.95%) |
Apr 8, 2026 28w ago | DEFA14A | $11.65 $12.93 | ▲ +10.99% | ▲ +0.21% | $11.09 (−4.81%) |
Mar 10, 2026 33w ago | Insider Cluster | $12.52 $10.53 | ▲ +15.89% | ▲ +27.30% | $11.09 (+11.42%) |
Mar 10, 2026 33w ago | Insider Cluster | $12.52 $10.53 | ▲ +15.89% | ▲ +27.30% | $11.09 (+11.42%) |
US Market Status
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