The feasibility study confirms Diamba Sud as a high-return gold project. Key catalysts to watch: (1) grant of the exploitation permit by the Senegalese government (application filed Feb 2026, FS filed Aug 2026), and (2) finalization of the State's carried interest (current 10% free + optional up to 25% contributory). The project's after-tax NPV at $3,500/oz represents ~38% of current $2.6B market cap. Monitor permitting milestones and any fiscal renegotiation risk.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Fortuna Mining Corp. filed a NI 43-101 feasibility study for its Diamba Sud gold project in Senegal, reporting 20.5 Mt at 1.75 g/t Au (1,151 koz) in Probable Reserves with an after-tax NPV(5%) of $1,009M and IRR of 60% at a $3,500/oz gold price. The study outlines a 9.4-year open-pit mine producing ~116 koz/year (LOM average), initial capex of $397.5M, LOM AISC of $1,332/oz, and a one-year payback. The project remains subject to the grant of an exploitation permit and negotiation of the State of Senegal's carried interest (10% free + up to 25% contributory), which introduces execution risk.
Key Facts
- Probable Mineral Reserves: 20.5 Mt at 1.75 g/t Au for 1,151 koz
- Indicated Resources (excl Reserves): 3.36 Mt at 1.12 g/t Au for 121 koz
- Inferred Resources: 1.63 Mt at 1.31 g/t Au for 68 koz
- Initial capital expenditure: $397.5 million
- LOM AISC: $1,332/oz; cash costs: $1,146/oz
- After-tax NPV(5%): $1,009M; after-tax IRR: 60%; payback: 1 year
- Average annual production LOM: 116 koz; first 4 years: 158 koz
- Average EBITDA LOM: $258M/year; first 4 years: $398M/year
- Mine life: 9.4 years; strip ratio: 6.3:1
- Metallurgical recovery: 91.5% average; 24-hr CIL at P80 106 µm
Financial Impact
After-tax NPV5% of $1,009M on $398M initial capex; average LOM EBITDA $258M/year
Risk Factors
- Exploitation permit delay or imposition of adverse conditions
- Senegal State may acquire up to an additional 25% contributory interest at 'fair price'
- Fiscal terms (royalties, taxes) subject to renegotiation during exploitation permit approval
- Additional permitting required for airstrip and solar farm components
- Cost inflation and long lead times for key equipment (mitigated by early works and contractor engagement)
- Artisanal mining activity, social license, and biodiversity commitments (chimpanzee critical habitat)
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 10 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 6-K Filing (FSM) — Batch item 1 | 0001104659-26-083056 |
| Document: tm2620019d1_6k.htm | 0001104659-26-083056 |
| Document: tm2620019d1_ex99-3.htm | 0001104659-26-083056 |
| Document: tm2620019d1_ex99-2.htm | 0001104659-26-083056 |
| Document: tm2620019d1_ex99-4.htm | 0001104659-26-083056 |
| Document: tm2620019d1_ex99-6.htm | 0001104659-26-083056 |
| Document: tm2620019d1_ex99-5.htm | 0001104659-26-083056 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-083056-index-headers.html | 0001104659-26-083056 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-083056-index.html | 0001104659-26-083056 |
| Document: 0001104659-26-083056.txt | 0001104659-26-083056 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 22, 2026 4d ago | 6-K | $9.52 | awaiting T+60 | — | $9.30 (−2.31%) |
Oct 20, 2026 6d ago | 6-K | $10.39 | awaiting T+60 | — | $9.30 (−10.49%) |
Oct 13, 2026 13d ago | 6-K | $10.58 | awaiting T+60 | — | $9.30 (−12.10%) |
Oct 8, 2026 18d ago | SC 13G/A | $10.61 | awaiting T+60 | — | $9.30 (−12.35%) |
Oct 7, 2026 19d ago | 6-K | $10.12 | awaiting T+60 | — | $9.30 (−8.10%) |
Sep 24, 2026 4w ago | 6-K | $11.50 | awaiting T+60 | — | $9.30 (−19.13%) |
Aug 10, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $10.83 | awaiting T+60 | — | $9.30 (−14.13%) |
Aug 5, 2026 11w ago | Press Release | $9.56 | awaiting T+60 | — | $9.30 (+2.72%) |
Jul 30, 2026 12w ago | 6-K | $8.77 $9.18 | ▲ +4.67% | ▲ +2.21% | $9.30 (+6.04%) |
Jul 23, 2026 13w ago | 6-K | $8.42 $10.54 | ▲ +25.18% | ▲ +20.63% | $9.30 (+10.45%) |
US Market Status
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