The large EPS and revenue miss vs consensus is the primary negative catalyst. Monitor the upcoming Q4 earnings call on Oct 29, 2026 for any change in lot delivery or revenue guidance, and watch for any insider selling following this miss.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Forestar Group reported fiscal Q3 2026 results with EPS of $0.70, a 42% miss vs consensus of $1.21, though revenue of $407.0M was below the $577.3M estimate. Net income grew 9% YoY to $35.9M and revenue rose 4% to $407.0M, but the headline miss on EPS and revenue vs consensus is the dominant signal. Guidance was maintained for lot deliveries (14,000-14,500) and revenue ($1.6B-$1.7B), offering no upside catalyst to offset the miss.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- EPS of $0.70 missed consensus of $1.21 by 42%
- Revenue of $407.0M missed consensus of $577.3M
- Net income attributable to Forestar increased 9% YoY to $35.9M
- Revenue increased 4% YoY to $407.0M
- Lots sold in Q3 increased 1% YoY to 3,659 lots
- Fiscal 2026 guidance maintained: 14,000-14,500 lots, $1.6B-$1.7B revenue
- Total liquidity of $1.1B; net debt to total capital ratio improved to 17.7%
- Book value per share increased 10% to $36.40
Financial Impact
EPS of $0.70 vs consensus $1.21 (-42%); revenue of $407.0M vs consensus $577.3M (-29.5%)
Risk Factors
- Continued affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment could further slow lot sales
- Dependence on D.R. Horton for a majority of lot sales concentrates customer risk
- Higher interest rates and inflation could pressure homebuilder demand and lot pricing
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001628280-26-048958 |
| Document: for-20260721.htm | 0001628280-26-048958 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-048958-index-headers.html | 0001628280-26-048958 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-048958-index.html | 0001628280-26-048958 |
| Document: 0001628280-26-048958.txt | 0001628280-26-048958 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001628280-26-048958 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jul 21, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $27.02 $25.41 | ▲ +5.96% | ▲ +9.93% | $25.90 (+4.15%) |
Jun 26, 2026 17w ago | Institutional Cluster | $31.94 $26.38 | ▼ −17.41% | ▼ −21.89% | $25.90 (−18.91%) |
Apr 21, 2026 26w ago | 8-K | $26.74 $30.92 | ▲ +15.63% | ▲ +8.73% | $25.90 (−3.14%) |
US Market Status
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