The significant EPS beat vs Street consensus ($1.23 vs $0.87) is overshadowed by the guidance cut for 2026 adjusted EBITDA from $2.97bn to $2.865bn. Traders should focus on the sustainability of US sportsbook recovery and the impact of prediction market investment on near-term profitability.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Flutter's Q1 2026 revenue grew 17% YoY to $4.304B, with GAAP EPS of $1.23 beating the $0.87 consensus by 41%. However, net income fell 38% YoY and full-year 2026 guidance was lowered: adjusted EBITDA midpoint reduced from $2.97B to $2.865B, reflecting unfavorable sports results and increased investment in prediction markets. The stock will likely be pulled between the massive EPS beat and the guidance cut, with the latter likely dominating sentiment.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q1 2026 revenue $4.304B, +17% YoY (benefiting from M&A)
- GAAP diluted EPS $1.23 vs $0.87 consensus (41.4% beat)
- Net income $209M, -38% YoY; adjusted EBITDA $631M, +2% YoY
- US segment adjusted EBITDA fell 26% to $119M due to sportsbook investment
- Full-year 2026 guidance lowered: Group revenue now $18.305B (prev. $18.4B), adjusted EBITDA $2.865B (prev. $2.97B)
- Share repurchase paused for deleveraging; $190M returned in Q1
- Management changes: Dan Taylor appointed President, Amy Howe left
- Review of London Stock Exchange listing commenced
Financial Impact
Q1 EPS beat consensus by $0.36, but full-year guidance cut by $105M in adjusted EBITDA midpoint
Risk Factors
- Full-year guidance cut signals slowing profitability momentum
- US sportsbook recovery may take longer than expected; handle growth still negative
- High leverage (3.7x) and paused buybacks limit shareholder return
- Potential LSE delisting adds regulatory uncertainty
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001193125-26-208993 |
| Document: d46069d8k.htm | 0001193125-26-208993 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-208993-index-headers.html | 0001193125-26-208993 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-208993-index.html | 0001193125-26-208993 |
| Document: 0001193125-26-208993.txt | 0001193125-26-208993 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001193125-26-208993 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 21, 2026 11d ago | ANALYST-DOWNGRADE | $86.86 $76.63 | ▲ +11.78% | ▲ +11.50% | $74.81 (+13.87%) |
Sep 3, 2026 29d ago | Insider Cluster | $102.34 $100.56 | ▼ −1.74% | ▼ −0.59% | $74.81 (−26.90%) |
Sep 3, 2026 29d ago | Insider Cluster | $102.34 $100.56 | ▼ −1.74% | ▼ −0.59% | $74.81 (−26.90%) |
Sep 2, 2026 4w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $101.98 $98.68 | ▼ −3.24% | ▼ −2.28% | $74.81 (−26.64%) |
Aug 20, 2026 6w ago | Insider Cluster | $99.57 $95.01 | ▼ −4.58% | ▼ −5.69% | $74.81 (−24.87%) |
Aug 12, 2026 7w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $98.08 $99.16 | ▲ +1.10% | ▲ +1.55% | $74.81 (−23.73%) |
Aug 7, 2026 8w ago | ANALYST-UPGRADE | $94.74 $101.41 | ▲ +7.04% | ▲ +6.64% | $74.81 (−21.04%) |
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $92.91 $98.08 | ▼ −5.56% | ▼ −5.21% | $74.81 (+19.48%) |
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | 8-K | $92.91 $98.08 | ▲ +5.56% | ▲ +5.21% | $74.81 (−19.48%) |
Aug 5, 2026 8w ago | Press Release | $92.91 $98.08 | ▼ −5.56% | ▼ −5.21% | $74.81 (+19.48%) |
US Market Status
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