The strong beat and upbeat qualitative guidance on self-help benefits and EBITDA uplift support a positive read-through for Q4. Monitor the Dec 2026 quarter for continued margin expansion and cash flow conversion, as well as any update on the Middle East conflict's impact on Asia Pacific volumes.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Dow reported Q3 2026 operating EPS of $0.71, beating the $0.64 consensus by 11.5%, on net sales of $11.3B (+13% YoY). The beat was driven by strong local price gains (+14%) across all segments, particularly Packaging & Specialty Plastics, and self-help cost actions. Guidance commentary was qualitative and upbeat, citing on-track delivery of $700M in 2026 transformation benefits and $1B+ EBITDA uplift in both 2026 and 2027.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Operating EPS $0.71 vs consensus $0.64 (beat by 11.5%)
- Net sales $11.3B, up 13% YoY; local price +14%, volume -1%
- Operating EBIT $887M, up $707M YoY from $180M
- Operating EBITDA $1.55B vs $868M YoY
- Cash from operations $1.84B, up $709M YoY; free cash flow $1.13B
- Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment net sales +18% YoY, Op. EBIT $585M (+$386M)
- Returns to shareholders: $253M in dividends in Q3
- Debt reduced ~$600M YTD; working capital released >$400M in Q3
- Company on track to deliver $700M in growth/productivity benefits in 2026 and $1B+ EBITDA uplift in both 2026 and 2027
Financial Impact
Operating EPS beat consensus by $0.07 (11.5%); net sales exceeded consensus by ~$80M; operating EBIT surged $707M YoY
Risk Factors
- Volume declined 1% YoY, with Asia Pacific down 12% due to Middle East conflict
- Higher raw material and logistics costs partially offset price gains
- GAAP EPS $0.62 vs operating EPS $0.71; significant items include Transform to Outperform costs and litigation gains
- Forward-looking guidance is qualitative; no hard EPS or revenue range provided
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic) | press-prn-302916752 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 23, 2026 4d ago | Institutional Cluster | $32.61 $33.99 | ▲ +4.23% | ▲ +3.52% | $33.78 (+3.59%) |
Oct 22, 2026 5d ago | 8-K | $31.81 $32.61 | ▲ +2.51% | ▲ +3.04% | $33.78 (+6.19%) |
Oct 22, 2026 5d ago | Press Release | $31.81 $32.61 | ▲ +2.51% | ▲ +3.04% | $33.78 (+6.19%) |
Oct 15, 2026 12d ago | Press Release | $29.93 $30.08 | ▲ +0.50% | ▲ +0.08% | $33.78 (+12.86%) |
Jul 23, 2026 13w ago | 8-K | $30.90 $29.84 | ▼ −3.43% | ▼ −3.53% | $33.78 (+9.32%) |
Apr 23, 2026 26w ago | 8-K | $38.53 $38.66 | ▲ +0.34% | ▼ −0.45% | $33.78 (−12.33%) |
Apr 14, 2026 28w ago | 8-K | $39.16 $38.84 | ▼ −0.82% | ▼ −1.59% | $33.78 (−13.74%) |
Mar 18, 2026 31w ago | DEFA14A | $37.49 $36.65 | ▼ −2.24% | ▼ −0.50% | $33.78 (−9.90%) |
Mar 17, 2026 32w ago | DEFA14A | $37.69 $37.49 | ▼ −0.53% | ▼ −0.26% | $33.78 (−10.37%) |
Feb 28, 2026 34w ago | Institutional Cluster | $30.60 $30.74 | ▲ +0.46% | ▲ +1.37% | $33.78 (+10.39%) |
US Market Status
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