Despite insider selling, strong institutional re-entry and sustained analyst upgrade momentum support the bullish case. Mizuho’s double upgrade from a low-accuracy firm is less impactful, but the $520 PT aligns with other top targets. Position for pre-earnings upside into June 1 report, particularly if short squeeze conditions persist.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Mizuho upgraded NVIDIA from Neutral to Outperform with a new price target of $520, representing 16% upside from current levels of $448.13. The firm's 52% accuracy rate (1,150/2,227 calls) is below the top-tier average of 67–100% across 15 firms covering the stock. Consensus remains bullish: 80% Buy/Strong Buy (46 of 51 analysts), with a mean PT of $491 and median of $499. Analyst momentum is strong: 3 upgrades in the past 30 days, including Keybanc and Wolfe Research. EPS estimates are flat near-term but show long-term growth, while insider selling by executives (>$1.5M) contrasts with institutional inflows from Norges Bank and Two Sigma. Short interest remains elevated at 59.0% of float. Earnings due June 1, 2026.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 51 analysts, 80% rate NVIDIA a Buy or Strong Buy (13 Strong Buy, 33 Buy), 14 Hold, and 1 Sell. The consensus direction is strongly bullish, with no recent downgrades. Mizuho’s upgrade brings it in line with the prevailing positive bias, though the call is not contrarian.
The consensus price target mean is $491.14 and median is $499, with a high of $706 and low of $368. At $448.13, the stock trades 9.6% below the mean target. Mizuho’s $520 PT is above both mean (+5.9%) and median (+4.2%), indicating a relatively optimistic stance within the bullish consensus.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Mizuho | upgrade | Outperform | $520.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | Keybanc | upgrade | Overweight | $525.00 |
| 2026-03-30 | Wolfe Research | upgrade | Outperform | $450.00 |
| 2026-03-17 | RBC Capital | reiterate | Outperform | $550.00 |
| 2026-03-10 | Morgan Stanley | upgrade | Overweight | $510.00 |
| 2026-03-05 | Citigroup | maintain | Buy | $525.00 |
| 2026-03-04 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | $455.00 |
| 2026-03-04 | Macquarie | maintain | Neutral | $400.00 |
| 2026-03-04 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | In-Line | $395.00 |
| 2026-03-04 | BNP Paribas | maintain | Neutral | $400.00 |
In the past 30 days, 3 analysts upgraded NVIDIA (Mizuho, Keybanc, Wolfe Research), 0 downgraded. EPS revisions show slight downward pressure: in the last 30 days, 17 revisions down vs 18 up for current year, and 19 down vs 15 up for next quarter. Despite stable long-term growth outlook, near-term estimate momentum is neutral-to-slightly negative.
Firm Track Record — Mizuho
Mizuho accuracy: 52% on 2227 calls | avg return: 4.7%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B of A Securities | 100% | 3/3 | 4.8% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 88% | 7/8 | 8% | top tier |
| Bernstein | 83% | 5/6 | 15.9% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 80% | 4/5 | 9.3% | top tier |
| WestPark Capital | 78% | 7/9 | 11.6% | top tier |
| Jefferies | 78% | 7/9 | 15.7% | top tier |
| Piper Sandler | 73% | 8/11 | 3.7% | top tier |
| Wedbush | 69% | 9/13 | 13.1% | top tier |
| UBS | 67% | 4/6 | 8.6% | top tier |
| BMO Capital | 67% | 6/9 | 8.2% | top tier |
Mizuho has a 52% accuracy rate (1,150 correct out of 2,227 rated calls), below the average accuracy of top-tier firms covering NVIDIA, which range from 62% to 100%. B of A Securities leads with 100% (3/3), followed by Evercore ISI (88%, 7/8) and Bernstein (83%, 5/6). Mizuho underperforms this group, though its average return of 4.7% is in line with sector norms.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jun 1, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $1.07 | $1.05 — $1.08 | $1.4B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $1.16 | $1.03 — $1.21 | $1.4B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0y | $4.85 | $4.76 — $5.00 | $5.9B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $6.17 | $5.60 — $7.74 | $7.2B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider activity shows heavy selling: George Kurtz and Anurag Saha sold over $1.5M in shares between April 17–22. Conversely, institutional activity turned positive: Norges Bank established a $1.6B position twice after an exit, and Two Sigma increased holdings by 576% before a near-exit. Congressional buys (Cisneros, $15K) and 59.0% short interest suggest retail and speculative interest remain high. Insider selling diverges from analyst upgrades and institutional accumulation.
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 16, 2026 16d ago | 144 | $241.36 $262.49 | ▲ +8.75% | ▲ +6.93% | $271.40 (+12.45%) |
Sep 16, 2026 16d ago | Insider Cluster | $241.36 $262.49 | ▼ −8.75% | ▼ −6.93% | $271.40 (−12.45%) |
Sep 11, 2026 20d ago | S-3ASR | $235.38 $249.35 | ▲ +5.94% | ▲ +4.28% | $271.40 (+15.30%) |
Sep 10, 2026 22d ago | Insider Cluster | $208.86 $245.70 | ▲ +17.64% | ▲ +18.14% | $271.40 (+29.94%) |
Sep 5, 2026 27d ago | Insider Cluster | $210.02 $242.49 | ▲ +15.46% | ▲ +16.58% | $271.40 (+29.23%) |
Sep 3, 2026 29d ago | Insider Cluster | $214.97 $206.74 | ▼ −3.83% | ▼ −2.68% | $271.40 (+26.25%) |
Aug 13, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $225.53 $190.34 | ▼ −15.60% | ▼ −13.64% | $271.40 (+20.34%) |
Aug 12, 2026 7w ago | Institutional Cluster | $221.78 $201.63 | ▼ −9.09% | ▼ −8.64% | $271.40 (+22.37%) |
Aug 11, 2026 7w ago | Insider Cluster | $221.90 $212.92 | ▼ −4.05% | ▼ −3.64% | $271.40 (+22.31%) |
Aug 7, 2026 8w ago | Insider Cluster | $214.42 $216.95 | ▲ +1.18% | ▲ +0.78% | $271.40 (+26.58%) |
US Market Status
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