The 42% EBITDAX guidance raise and accelerated drilling signal strong operational momentum. Monitor H2 2026 production ramp to 175 MBoed exit rate and oil price realizations (Brent assumed $90.58/bbl for FY). The stock should re-rate on improved cash flow visibility.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
CRC reported Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.88, beating consensus of $0.83 (+6%), with revenue of $967M up 6.7% YoY. The company raised 2026E adjusted EBITDAX guidance by 42% to $1.4-$1.5B, driven by higher oil prices, increased Berry merger synergies, and an accelerated drilling program (7 rigs in H2). GAAP net loss of $711M was due to non-cash derivative losses, but operating fundamentals and forward guidance are strong.
Key Financial Metrics
Key Facts
- Q1 2026 adjusted EPS $0.88 vs consensus $0.83 (beat 6%)
- Revenue (before derivatives) $967M, up 6.7% YoY from $906M
- 2026E adjusted EBITDAX guidance raised 42% to $1,400-$1,500M midpoint $1,450M
- Net production 154 MBoed (81% oil), up from 141 MBoed Q1 2025
- Free cash flow -$32M (positive $116M before working capital changes)
- Returned $46M to shareholders ($36M dividends, $10M buybacks)
- Announced H2 2026 7-rig program targeting ~175 MBoed exit rate
- Berry merger synergy target raised 12% to $90-$100M
Financial Impact
Adjusted EBITDAX guidance midpoint increased ~$430M to $1.45B (42% raise)
Risk Factors
- Crude oil price volatility (Brent down from $77.90/bbl in Q1 to $90.58 assumed for FY? Actually Q1 Brent was $77.90, FY assumption $90.58 — if oil drops, guidance may not hold)
- Execution risk on 7-rig drilling program and permitting in California
- Non-cash derivative losses may continue to distort GAAP earnings
- Negative free cash flow in Q1 due to higher capex; liquidity $1,276M
Market Snapshot
Investment Themes
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| 8-K Filing (Primary) | 0001609253-26-000102 |
| Document: crc-20260430.htm | 0001609253-26-000102 |
| Document: 0001609253-26-000102-index-headers.html | 0001609253-26-000102 |
| Document: 0001609253-26-000102-index.html | 0001609253-26-000102 |
| Document: 0001609253-26-000102.txt | 0001609253-26-000102 |
| 8-K Data (Synthetic) | 0001609253-26-000102 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 10, 2026 7w ago | 8-K | $53.75 $55.57 | ▲ +3.39% | ▲ +4.30% | $51.66 (−3.89%) |
Aug 10, 2026 7w ago | Press Release | $53.75 $55.57 | ▲ +3.39% | ▲ +4.30% | $51.66 (−3.89%) |
Jul 14, 2026 11w ago | 8-K | $52.32 $54.13 | ▲ +3.46% | ▲ +0.97% | $51.66 (−1.26%) |
Jun 26, 2026 14w ago | 8-K | $52.60 $53.47 | ▲ +1.65% | ▲ +1.93% | $51.66 (−1.79%) |
Jun 16, 2026 15w ago | 8-K | $55.35 $52.09 | ▼ −5.89% | ▼ −7.21% | $51.66 (−6.67%) |
Jun 16, 2026 15w ago | 8-K | $56.25 $52.32 | ▼ −6.99% | ▼ −7.19% | $51.66 (−8.16%) |
May 5, 2026 21w ago | 8-K | $61.46 $62.20 | ▲ +1.20% | ▼ −1.58% | $51.66 (−15.95%) |
May 5, 2026 21w ago | Press Release | $61.46 $62.20 | ▲ +1.20% | ▼ −1.58% | $51.66 (−15.95%) |
Apr 17, 2026 24w ago | 8-K | $62.18 $62.50 | ▲ +0.51% | ▼ −3.69% | $51.66 (−16.92%) |
Mar 18, 2026 28w ago | DEFA14A | $62.91 $62.74 | ▼ −0.27% | ▼ −7.89% | $51.66 (−17.88%) |
US Market Status
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